Controlling the flexibility of non-Gaussian processes through shrinkage priors

Cabral, Rafael; Bolin, David; Rue, H˚avard

Controlling the flexibility of non-Gaussian processes through shrinkage priors

Files

2203.05510 (1).pdf (6.66 MB)

Type

Article

Authors

Cabral, Rafael
Bolin, David

Rue, H˚avard

KAUST Department

Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
Statistics Program

Date

2022-10-29

Abstract

The normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) and generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distributions can be seen as skewed and semi-heavy-tailed extensions of the Gaussian distribution. Models driven by these more flexible noise distributions are then regarded as flexible extensions of simpler Gaussian models. Inferential procedures tend to overestimate the degree of non-Gaussianity in the data and therefore we propose controlling the flexibility of these non-Gaussian models by adding sensible priors in the inferential framework that contract the model towards Gaussianity. In our venture to derive sensible priors, we also propose a new intuitive parameterization of the nonGaussian models and discuss how to implement them efficiently in Stan. The methods are derived for a generic class of non-Gaussian models that include spatial Mat´ern fields, autoregressive models for time series, and simultaneous autoregressive models for aerial data. The results are illustrated with a simulation study and geostatistics application, where priors that penalize model complexity were shown to lead to more robust estimation and give preference to the Gaussian model, while at the same time allowing for non-Gaussianity if there is sufficient evidence in the data.

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Version	Date	Summary
2*	2022-11-08 07:57:10	Accepted in Journal
1	2022-05-16 08:35:07

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