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dc.contributor.authorIezzi, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, Gerald
dc.contributor.authorFaure Walker, Joanna
dc.contributor.authorPapanikolaou, Ioannis
dc.contributor.authorGanas, Athanassios
dc.contributor.authorDeligiannakis, Georgios
dc.contributor.authorBeck, Joakim
dc.contributor.authorWolfers, Sören
dc.contributor.authorGheorghiu, Delia
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-07T07:48:36Z
dc.date.available2021-12-07T07:48:36Z
dc.date.issued2021-12-02
dc.identifier.citationIezzi, F., Roberts, G., Faure Walker, J., Papanikolaou, I., Ganas, A., Deligiannakis, G., … Gheorghiu, D. (2021). Temporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate. Scientific Reports, 11(1). doi:10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-021-02131-3
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/673920
dc.description.abstractTo assess whether continental extension and seismic hazard are spatially-localized on single faults or spread over wide regions containing multiple active faults, we investigated temporal and spatial slip-rate variability over many millennia using in-situ $^{36}$Cl cosmogenic exposure dating for active normal faults near Athens, Greece. We study a ~ NNE-SSW transect, sub-parallel to the extensional strain direction, constrained by two permanent GPS stations located at each end of the transect and arranged normal to the fault strikes. We sampled 3 of the 7 seven normal faults that exist between the GPS sites for $^{36}$Cl analyses. Results from Bayesian inference of the measured $^{36}$Cl data implies that some faults slip relatively-rapidly for a few millennia accompanied by relative quiescence on faults across strike, defining out-of-phase fault activity. Assuming that the decadal strain-rate derived from GPS applies over many millennia, slip on a single fault can accommodate ~ 30–75% of the regional strain-rate for a few millennia. Our results imply that only a fraction of the total number of Holocene active faults slip over timescales of a few millennia, so continental deformation and seismic hazard are localized on specific faults and over a length-scale shorter than the spacing of the present GPS network over this time-scale. Thus, (1) the identification of clustered fault activity is vital for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, and (2) a combination of dense geodetic observations and palaeoseismology is needed to identify the precise location and width of actively deforming zones over specific time periods.
dc.description.sponsorshipTis work has been funded by NERC Grant CIAF 9183-1017, NERC Studentship NE/L002485/1, MIS 5002697/NSRF 2014-2020, Greece, and the European Union (European Regional Development Fund). A.G acknowledges funding by the project “HELPOS—Hellenic System for Lithosphere Monitoring”. We thank the Editor Antonio Avallone and three anonymous reviewers for the comments and suggestions that have improved the paper.
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-02131-3
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Scientific Reports
dc.titleTemporal and spatial earthquake clustering revealed through comparison of millennial strain-rates from 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating and decadal GPS strain-rate
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
dc.contributor.departmentApplied Mathematics and Computational Science Program
dc.identifier.journalScientific Reports
dc.eprint.versionPre-print
dc.contributor.institutionDiSPUTer, Università Degli Studi “Gabriele d’Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Via dei Vestini, 66100 Chieti, Italy
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck, University of London, Malet Street, London WC1E 7HX, UK
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
dc.contributor.institutionMineralogy‑Geology Laboratory, Department of Natural Resources Development and Agricultural Engineering, Agricultural University of Athens, 75 Iera Odos, 118‑55 Athens, Greece
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Nymfon, 11810 Athens, Greece
dc.contributor.institutionScottish Universities Environmental Research Centre, Rankine Avenue, East KilbrideG750QF, UK
dc.identifier.volume11
dc.identifier.issue1
kaust.personBeck, Joakim
kaust.personWolfers, Soeren
refterms.dateFOA2021-12-07T07:54:22Z
dc.date.published-online2021-12-02
dc.date.published-print2021-12


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