Experimental reef communities persist under future ocean acidification and warming

Abstract

Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean acidification and warming, and are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems to net eroding algal-dominated systems over the coming decades. Here we present a long-term experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to acidification (-0.2 pH units), warming (+ 2°C), and combined future ocean (-0.2 pH, + 2°C) treatments. We show that under future ocean conditions, net calcification rates declined yet remained positive, corals showed reduced abundance yet were not extirpated, and community composition shifted while species richness was maintained. Our results suggest that under Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered functional state rather than collapse.