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dc.contributor.authorKlein, Shannon
dc.contributor.authorGeraldi, Nathan
dc.contributor.authorAnton Gamazo, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt-Roach, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorZiegler, Maren
dc.contributor.authorCziesielski, Maha Joana
dc.contributor.authorMartin, Cecilia
dc.contributor.authorRädecker, Nils
dc.contributor.authorFrölicher, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.authorMumby, Peter J.
dc.contributor.authorPandolfi, John M.
dc.contributor.authorSuggett, David J.
dc.contributor.authorVoolstra, Christian R.
dc.contributor.authorAranda, Manuel
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos. M.
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-04T11:53:01Z
dc.date.available2021-08-04T11:53:01Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-29
dc.date.submitted2021-08-03
dc.identifier.citationKlein, S. G., Geraldi, N. R., Anton, A., Schmidt-Roach, S., Ziegler, M., Cziesielski, M. J., … Duarte, C. M. (2021). Projecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification. Global Change Biology. doi:10.1111/gcb.15818
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.15818
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/670419
dc.description.abstractOver this century, coral reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change as marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and frequent, and ocean acidification (OA) progresses. However, we still lack a quantitative assessment of how, and to what degree, OA will moderate the responses of corals to MHWs as they intensify throughout this century. Here, we first projected future MHW intensities for tropical regions under three future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for the near-term (2021-2040), mid-century (2041-2060), and late-century (2081-2100). We then combined these MHW intensity projections with a global dataset of 1,788 experiments to assess coral attribute performance and survival under the three emissions scenarios for the near term, mid-century, and late century in the presence and absence of OA. Although warming and OA had predominately additive impacts on the coral responses, the contribution of OA in affecting most coral attribute responses was minor relative to the dominant role of intensifying MHWs. However, the addition of OA led to greater decreases in photosynthesis and survival under intermediate and unrestricted emissions scenarios for the mid and late century than if intensifying MHWs were considered as the only driver. These results indicate that the role OA in affecting coral responses to intensifying MHWs temperatures is specific to the coral attribute examined and the extremity of temperatures tested. Specifically, intensifying MHWs and OA will cause increasing instances of coral bleaching and substantial declines in coral productivity, calcification, and survival within the next two decades under the low and intermediate emissions scenarios. These projections suggest that corals must rapidly adapt or acclimatize to projected ocean conditions to persist, which is far more likely under a low emissions scenario and with increasing efforts to manage reefs to enhance resilience.
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relation.urlhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15818
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Global Change Biology
dc.titleProjecting coral responses to intensifying marine heatwaves under ocean acidification
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentRed Sea Research Center (RSRC)
dc.contributor.departmentBiological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division
dc.contributor.departmentKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) Thuwal 23955-6900 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
dc.contributor.departmentMarine Science Program
dc.contributor.departmentKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Red Sea Research Center (RSRC) and Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC) Thuwal 23955-6900 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
dc.identifier.journalGlobal Change Biology
dc.rights.embargodate2022-08-03
dc.eprint.versionPost-print
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Animal Ecology & Systematics Justus Liebig University Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32 IFZ D-35392 Giessen Germany
dc.contributor.institutionClimate and Environmental Physics Physics Institute University of Bern Bern Switzerland
dc.contributor.institutionOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland
dc.contributor.institutionMarine Spatial Ecology Lab School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland St. Lucia, Brisbane QLD 4072 Australia
dc.contributor.institutionAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland St. Lucia, Brisbane QLD 4072 Australia
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Technology Sydney Climate Change Cluster Faculty of Science Sydney NSW 2007 Australia
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Biology University of Konstanz Konstanz 78457 Germany
kaust.personKlein, Shannon
kaust.personGeraldi, Nathan
kaust.personAnton Gamazo, Andrea
kaust.personSchmidt-Roach, Sebastian
kaust.personZiegler, Maren
kaust.personCziesielski Olschowsky, Maha Joana
kaust.personMartin, Cecilia
kaust.personRadecker, Nils
kaust.personVoolstra, Christian R.
kaust.personAranda, Manuel
kaust.personDuarte, Carlos. M.
refterms.dateFOA2021-08-04T11:54:41Z


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