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dc.contributor.authorChao, Fengqing
dc.contributor.authorGuilmoto, Christophe Z.
dc.contributor.authorOmbao, Hernando
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-15T06:50:39Z
dc.date.available2021-07-15T06:50:39Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-14
dc.date.submitted2021-03-04
dc.identifier.citationChao, F., Guilmoto, C. Z., & Ombao, H. (2021). Sex ratio at birth in Vietnam among six subnational regions during 1980–2050, estimation and probabilistic projection using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model with 2.9 million birth records. PLOS ONE, 16(7), e0253721. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253721
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0253721
dc.identifier.doi10.31235/osf.io/9xrbk
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/670234
dc.description.abstractThe sex ratio at birth (SRB, i.e., the ratio of male to female births) in Vietnam has been imbalanced since the 2000s. Previous studies have revealed a rapid increase in the SRB over the past 15 years and the presence of important variations across regions. More recent studies suggested that the nation’s SRB may have plateaued during the 2010s. Given the lack of exhaustive birth registration data in Vietnam, it is necessary to estimate and project levels and trends in the regional SRBs in Vietnam based on a reproducible statistical approach. We compiled an extensive database on regional Vietnam SRBs based on all publicly available surveys and censuses and used a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model to estimate and project SRB in Vietnam by region from 1980 to 2050. The Bayesian model incorporates the uncertainties from the observations and year-by-year natural fluctuation. It includes a binary parameter to detect the existence of sex ratio transitions among Vietnamese regions. Furthermore, we model the SRB imbalance using a trapezoid function to capture the increase, stagnation, and decrease of the sex ratio transition by Vietnamese regions. The model results show that four out of six Vietnamese regions, namely, Northern Midlands and Mountain Areas, Northern Central and Central Coastal Areas, Red River Delta, and South East, have existing sex imbalances at birth. The rise in SRB in the Red River Delta was the fastest, as it took only 12 years and was more pronounced, with the SRB reaching the local maximum of 1.146 with a 95% credible interval (1.129, 1.163) in 2013. The model projections suggest that the current decade will record a sustained decline in sex imbalances at birth, and the SRB should be back to the national SRB baseline level of 1.06 in all regions by the mid-2030s.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe study is supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology baseline funding. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science (PLoS)
dc.relation.urlhttps://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253721
dc.relation.urlhttps://fengqingchao.com/
dc.rightsThis is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleSex ratio at birth in Vietnam among six subnational regions during 1980–2050, estimation and probabilistic projection using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model with 2.9 million birth records
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
dc.contributor.departmentStatistics Program
dc.identifier.journalPLOS ONE
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDF
dc.contributor.institutionCEPED/IRD, Centre de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi, India.
dc.identifier.volume16
dc.identifier.issue7
dc.identifier.pagese0253721
kaust.personChao, Fengqing
kaust.personOmbao, Hernando
dc.date.accepted2021-06-10
refterms.dateFOA2021-07-15T06:51:34Z


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This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.