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dc.contributor.authorSolabarrieta, Lohitzune
dc.contributor.authorHernández-Carrasco, Ismael
dc.contributor.authorRubio, Anna
dc.contributor.authorCampbell, Michael F
dc.contributor.authorEsnaola, Ganix
dc.contributor.authorMader, Julien
dc.contributor.authorJones, Burton
dc.contributor.authorOrfila, Alejandro
dc.identifier.citationSolabarrieta, L., Hernández-Carrasco, I., Rubio, A., Campbell, M., Esnaola, G., Mader, J., … Orfila, A. (2021). A new Lagrangian-based short-term prediction methodology for high-frequency (HF) radar currents. Ocean Science, 17(3), 755–768. doi:10.5194/os-17-755-2021
dc.description.abstractAbstract. The use of high-frequency radar (HFR) data is increasing worldwide for different applications in the field of operational oceanography and data assimilation, as it provides real-time coastal surface currents at high temporal and spatial resolution. In this work, a Lagrangian-based, empirical, real-time, short-term prediction (L-STP) system is presented in order to provide short-term forecasts of up to 48 h of ocean currents. The method is based on finding historical analogs of Lagrangian trajectories obtained from HFR surface currents. Then, assuming that the present state will follow the same temporal evolution as the historical analog, we perform the forecast. The method is applied to two HFR systems covering two areas with different dynamical characteristics: the southeast Bay of Biscay and the central Red Sea. A comparison of the L-STP methodology with predictions based on persistence and reference fields is performed in order to quantify the error introduced by this approach. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to determine the limit of applicability of the methodology regarding the temporal horizon of Lagrangian prediction. A real-time skill score has been developed using the results of this analysis, which allows for the identification of periods when the short-term prediction performance is more likely to be low, and persistence can be used as a better predictor for the future currents.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research has been supported by EU Horizon 2020 (grant nos. LIFE15 ENV/ES/000252, 654410, and 871153) and by the Spanish MINECO (grant no. 256RTI2018- 093941-B-C31 co-financed with FEDER funds.
dc.publisherCopernicus GmbH
dc.rightsThis work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
dc.titleA new Lagrangian-based short-term prediction methodology for high-frequency (HF) radar currents
dc.contributor.departmentBiological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE) Division
dc.contributor.departmentKAUST, Red Sea Research Center, Integrated Ocean Processes, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
dc.contributor.departmentMarine Science Program
dc.contributor.departmentRed Sea Research Center (RSRC)
dc.identifier.journalOcean Science
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDF
dc.contributor.institutionAZTI Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Pasaia, Spain.
dc.contributor.institutionGlobal Change and Operational Oceanography Dept., Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), 07190 Esporles, Spain.
dc.contributor.institutionNuclear Engineering and Fluid Mechanics Dept., UPV, 20018 Donostia, Spain.
dc.contributor.institutionJoint Research Unit BEGIK, (IEO)-(UPV/EHU), 48620 Plentzia, Spain.
kaust.personSolabarrieta, Lohitzune
kaust.personCampbell, Michael
kaust.personJones, Burton

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