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dc.contributor.authorDairi, Abdelkader
dc.contributor.authorHarrou, Fouzi
dc.contributor.authorSun, Ying
dc.contributor.authorKhadraoui, Sofiane
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-02T07:17:39Z
dc.date.available2020-12-02T07:17:39Z
dc.date.submitted2020-10-07
dc.identifier.citationDairi, A., Harrou, F., Sun, Y., & Khadraoui, S. (2020). Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Solar Power Production Using Variational Auto-Encoder Driven Deep Learning Approach. Applied Sciences, 10(23), 8400. doi:10.3390/app10238400
dc.identifier.issn2076-3417
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/app10238400
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/666215
dc.description.abstractThe accurate modeling and forecasting of the power output of photovoltaic (PV) systems are critical to efficiently managing their integration in smart grids, delivery, and storage. This paper intends to provide efficient short-term forecasting of solar power production using Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) model. Adopting the VAE-driven deep learning model is expected to improve forecasting accuracy because of its suitable performance in time-series modeling and flexible nonlinear approximation. Both single-and multi-step-ahead forecasts are investigated in this work. Data from two grid-connected plants (a 243 kW parking lot canopy array in the US and a 9 MW PV system in Algeria) are employed to show the investigated deep learning models’ performance. Specifically, the forecasting outputs of the proposed VAE-based forecasting method have been compared with seven deep learning methods, namely recurrent neural network, Long short-term memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM, Convolutional LSTM network, Gated recurrent units, stacked autoencoder, and restricted Boltzmann machine, and two commonly used machine learning methods, namely logistic regression and support vector regression. The results of this investigation demonstrate the satisfying performance of deep learning techniques to forecast solar power and point out that the VAE consistently performed better than the other methods. Also, results confirmed the superior performance of deep learning models compared to the two considered baseline machine learning models.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by funding from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Office of Sponsored Research (OSR) under Award No: OSR-2019-CRG7-3800.
dc.publisherMDPI AG
dc.relation.urlhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/23/8400
dc.rightsThis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleShort-term forecasting of photovoltaic solar power production using variational auto-encoder driven deep learning approach
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
dc.contributor.departmentStatistics Program
dc.identifier.journalApplied Sciences (Switzerland)
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDF
dc.contributor.institutionComputer Science Department Signal, Image and Speech Laboratory (SIMPA) Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of Oran-Mohamed Boudiaf (USTO-MB), El Mnaouar, BP 1505, Bir El Djir, 31000, Algeria;
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Electrical Engineering, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, 27272, UAE;
dc.identifier.volume10
dc.identifier.issue23
dc.identifier.pages1-20
kaust.personHarrou, Fouzi
kaust.personSun, Ying
kaust.grant.numberOSR-2019-CRG7-3800
dc.date.accepted2020-11-19
dc.identifier.eid2-s2.0-85096512013
refterms.dateFOA2020-12-02T07:19:44Z
kaust.acknowledged.supportUnitOffice of Sponsored Research (OSR)


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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.