Short-term forecasting of photovoltaic solar power production using variational auto-encoder driven deep learning approach
Type
ArticleKAUST Department
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) DivisionStatistics Program
KAUST Grant Number
OSR-2019-CRG7-3800Submitted Date
2020-10-07Permanent link to this record
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/666215
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The accurate modeling and forecasting of the power output of photovoltaic (PV) systems are critical to efficiently managing their integration in smart grids, delivery, and storage. This paper intends to provide efficient short-term forecasting of solar power production using Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) model. Adopting the VAE-driven deep learning model is expected to improve forecasting accuracy because of its suitable performance in time-series modeling and flexible nonlinear approximation. Both single-and multi-step-ahead forecasts are investigated in this work. Data from two grid-connected plants (a 243 kW parking lot canopy array in the US and a 9 MW PV system in Algeria) are employed to show the investigated deep learning models’ performance. Specifically, the forecasting outputs of the proposed VAE-based forecasting method have been compared with seven deep learning methods, namely recurrent neural network, Long short-term memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM, Convolutional LSTM network, Gated recurrent units, stacked autoencoder, and restricted Boltzmann machine, and two commonly used machine learning methods, namely logistic regression and support vector regression. The results of this investigation demonstrate the satisfying performance of deep learning techniques to forecast solar power and point out that the VAE consistently performed better than the other methods. Also, results confirmed the superior performance of deep learning models compared to the two considered baseline machine learning models.Citation
Dairi, A., Harrou, F., Sun, Y., & Khadraoui, S. (2020). Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Solar Power Production Using Variational Auto-Encoder Driven Deep Learning Approach. Applied Sciences, 10(23), 8400. doi:10.3390/app10238400Sponsors
This work was supported by funding from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Office of Sponsored Research (OSR) under Award No: OSR-2019-CRG7-3800.Publisher
MDPI AGJournal
Applied Sciences (Switzerland)Additional Links
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/23/8400ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.3390/app10238400
Scopus Count
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