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    Levels and trends in the sex ratio at birth in seven provinces of Nepal between 1980 and 2016 with probabilistic projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach

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    Type
    Preprint
    Authors
    Chao, Fengqing cc
    KC, Samir
    Ombao, Hernando cc
    KAUST Department
    Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
    Statistics Program
    Date
    2020-07-01
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/10754/666187
    
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    Abstract
    The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) in Nepal has been reported without imbalance on the national level. However, the national SRB could mask the disparity within the country. Given the demographic and cultural heterogeneities in Nepal, it is crucial to model Nepal SRB on the subnational level. Prior studies on subnational SRB in Nepal are mostly based on reporting observed values from surveys and census, and no study has provided probabilistic projections. We aim to estimate and project SRB for the seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050 using a Bayesian modeling approach. We compiled an extensive database on provincial SRB of Nepal, consisting 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys and 2011 Census. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to estimate and project the provincial SRB, with a focus on modelling the potential SRB imbalance. In 2016, the highest SRB is estimated in Province 5 at 1.102 with a 95% credible interval (1.044, 1.127) and the lowest SRB is in Province 2 at 1.053 (1.035, 1.109). The SRB imbalance probabilities in all provinces are generally low and vary from 16% in Province 2 to 81% in Province 5. SRB imbalances are estimated to have begun at the earliest in 2001 in Province 5 with a 95% credible interval (1992, 2022) and the latest in 2017 (1998, 2040) in Province 2. We project SRB in all provinces to begin converging back to the national baseline in the mid-2030s. Our findings imply that the majority of provinces in Nepal have low risks of SRB imbalance for the period 1980-2016. However, we identify a few provinces with higher probabilities of having SRB inflation. The projected SRB is an important illustration of potential future prenatal sex discrimination and shows the need to monitor SRB in provinces with higher possibilities of SRB imbalance.
    Sponsors
    FC and HO are supported by baseline research grant from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. SKC is partially supported by the Major Program of the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 16ZDA088).
    The authors are grateful to Leontine Alkema and Christophe Z. Guilmoto for their valuable comments and discussion on the earlier version of this manuscript. We are thankful for Ryan Rylee’s copy editing service
    Publisher
    arXiv
    arXiv
    2007.00437
    Additional Links
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.00437
    Collections
    Preprints; Statistics Program; Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division

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