Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
AuthorsKetcheson, David I.
KAUST DepartmentApplied Mathematics and Computational Science Program
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
Embargo End Date2022-06-26
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/663431
MetadataShow full item record
AbstractWe consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic.
CitationKetcheson, D. I. (2021). Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 83(1). doi:10.1007/s00285-021-01628-9
SponsorsThe author was supported by funding from King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST).
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
JournalJournal of Mathematical Biology
RelationsIs Supplemented By: