Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention
AuthorsKetcheson, David I.
KAUST DepartmentApplied Mathematics and Computational Science Program
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/663431
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AbstractWe consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic.
CitationKetcheson, D. I. (2020). Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention. doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20091439
SponsorsThe author was supported by funding from King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST).
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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