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    Increasing heavy rainfall events in South India due to changing land use land cover

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    Name:
    Increasing heavy Rain fall_qj.3826.pdf
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    2.063Mb
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    PDF
    Description:
    Accepted manuscript
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    Type
    Article
    Authors
    Boyaj, Alugula
    Dasari, Hari Prasad cc
    Hoteit, Ibrahim cc
    Ashok, Karumuri cc
    KAUST Department
    Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division
    Earth Fluid Modeling and Prediction Group
    Earth Science and Engineering Program
    Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division
    Red Sea Research Center (RSRC)
    Date
    2020-06-30
    Online Publication Date
    2020-06-30
    Print Publication Date
    2020-10
    Embargo End Date
    2021-05-18
    Submitted Date
    2019-11-20
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/10754/662874
    
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    Abstract
    Through an analysis of land use land cover (LULC) data for the years 2005 and 2017 from the Advanced Wide Field Sensor onboard the Indian Remote Sensing satellite, we find considerable changes in the LULC in three major states of South India, namely, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Kerala. This change is mainly due to increasing urbanization, in addition to the change of prevalent mixed forest into deciduous needle/leaf forest in Kerala. Motivated by this finding, we study the impact of these LULC changes over a decade on the extremity of twelve heavy rainfall events in these states through several sensitivity experiments with a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model, by changing the LULC boundary conditions. We particularly focus on three representative heavy rainfall events, specifically, over (i) Chennai (December 01, 2015), (ii) Telangana (September 24, 2016), and (iii) Kerala (August 15, 2018). The simulated rainfall patterns of the three heavy rainfall events are found to be relatively better with the use of the 2017 LULC boundary conditions. The improvement is statistically significant in the case of the Chennai and Kerala events. On analysis of these simulations, and outputs from additional simulations we have conducted for nine other heavy rainfall events, we suggest that the recent LULC changes result in higher surface temperatures, sensible heat fluxes, and a deeper and moist boundary layer. This causes a relatively higher convective available potential energy and, consequently, heavier rainfall. We find the LULC changes in the three states, mainly dominated by the increasing urbanization in Telangana and Tamil Nadu, enhance the rainfall during the heavy rainfall events by 20% - 25%. This is the first extensive investigation of multiple and multi-regional cases over the Indian region.
    Citation
    Boyaj, A., Dasari, H. P., Hoteit, I., & Ashok, K. (2020). Increasing heavy rainfall events in South India due to changing land use land cover. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi:10.1002/qj.3826
    Sponsors
    The authors thank the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing gridded rainfall dataset. We also acknowledge all data providers (ISRO, TRMM, APHRODITE, GPM, ERA5 and NCEP) that made their datasets available for this study. Dr. K. Srinivasarao (NRSC) support in the usage of the IRSO LULC datasets is particularly acknowledged, and Dr. K. Nagaratna (IMD, Begumpet, Hyderabad) for providing synoptic information of the Telangana event. The first author is thankful to KAUST for providing a student visiting research fellowship to carry out this research. All model simulations were carried out on the KAUST supercomputing facility Shaheen. Also acknowledge Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the Senior Research Fellowship (SRF)
    Publisher
    Wiley
    Journal
    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
    DOI
    10.1002/qj.3826
    Additional Links
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3826
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1002/qj.3826
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Articles; Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE) Division; Red Sea Research Center (RSRC); Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division; Earth Science and Engineering Program

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