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Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Sørbye, Sigrunn Holbek
KAUST DepartmentStatistics Program
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/661837.1
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AbstractReliable quantification of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to radiative forcing is essential for assessing the risk of dangerous anthropogenic climate change. We present the statistical foundations for an observation-based approach, using a stochastic linear-response model that is consistent with the long-range temporal dependence observed in global temperature variability. We have incorporated the model in a latent Gaussian modeling framework, which allows for the use of integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) to perform full Bayesian analysis. As examples of applications, we estimate the GMST response to forcing from historical data and compute temperature trajectories under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for future greenhouse gas forcing. For historic runs in the Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, we estimate response functions and demonstrate that one can infer the transient climate response (TCR) from the instrumental temperature record. We illustrate the effect of long-range dependence by comparing the results with those obtained from a 1-box energy balance model. The software developed to perform the given analyses is publicly available as the R-package INLA.climate.
CitationMyrvoll-Nilsen, E., Sørbye, S. H., Fredriksen, H.-B., Rue, H., & Rypdal, M. (2019). Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling. doi:10.5194/esd-2019-66
SponsorsThe authors thank K. Rypdal for useful discussions. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 820970.
JournalEarth System Dynamics
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Archived with thanks to Copernicus GmbH