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dc.contributor.authorRivalta, E.
dc.contributor.authorCorbi, F.
dc.contributor.authorPassarelli, Luigi
dc.contributor.authorAcocella, V.
dc.contributor.authorDavis, T.
dc.contributor.authorDi Vito, M. A.
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-20T11:21:34Z
dc.date.available2019-08-20T11:21:34Z
dc.date.issued2019-07-31
dc.identifier.citationRivalta, E., Corbi, F., Passarelli, L., Acocella, V., Davis, T., & Di Vito, M. A. (2019). Stress inversions to forecast magma pathways and eruptive vent location. Science Advances, 5(7), eaau9784. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau9784
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/sciadv.aau9784
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/656547
dc.description.abstractWhen a batch of magma reaches Earth’s surface, it forms a vent from which volcanic products are erupted. At many volcanoes, successive batches may open vents far away from previous ones, resulting in scattered, sometimes seemingly random spatial distributions. This exposes vast areas to volcanic hazards and makes forecasting difficult. Here, we show that magma pathways and thus future vent locations may be forecast by combining the physics of magma transport with a Monte Carlo inversion scheme for the volcano stress history. We validate our approach on a densely populated active volcanic field, Campi Flegrei (Italy), where we forecast future vents on an onshore semiannular belt located between 2.3 and 4.2 km from the caldera center. Our approach offers a mechanical explanation for the vent migration over time at Campi Flegrei and at many calderas worldwide and may be applicable to volcanoes of any type.
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank M. Bagnardi and D. Bindi for discussion.
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding: E.R. and F.C. were funded by the European Union Supersite MED-SUV project, grant agreement no. 308665. L.P. was funded by the German Federal Foreign Office through the German Humanitarian Assistance program, grant S05-41-321.50 IDN 03/16. V.A. was funded by the DPC-INGV project
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
dc.relation.urlhttp://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aau9784
dc.rightsThis is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.titleStress inversions to forecast magma pathways and eruptive vent location.
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentPhysical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division
dc.identifier.journalScience advances
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDF
dc.contributor.institutionGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany.
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Science, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy
dc.contributor.institutionIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli, Italy.
kaust.personPassarelli, Luigi
refterms.dateFOA2019-08-20T11:23:44Z
dc.date.published-online2019-07-31
dc.date.published-print2019-07


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This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.