Stress inversions to forecast magma pathways and eruptive vent location.
KAUST DepartmentPhysical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division
Online Publication Date2019-07-31
Print Publication Date2019-07
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/656547
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AbstractWhen a batch of magma reaches Earth’s surface, it forms a vent from which volcanic products are erupted. At many volcanoes, successive batches may open vents far away from previous ones, resulting in scattered, sometimes seemingly random spatial distributions. This exposes vast areas to volcanic hazards and makes forecasting difficult. Here, we show that magma pathways and thus future vent locations may be forecast by combining the physics of magma transport with a Monte Carlo inversion scheme for the volcano stress history. We validate our approach on a densely populated active volcanic field, Campi Flegrei (Italy), where we forecast future vents on an onshore semiannular belt located between 2.3 and 4.2 km from the caldera center. Our approach offers a mechanical explanation for the vent migration over time at Campi Flegrei and at many calderas worldwide and may be applicable to volcanoes of any type.
CitationRivalta, E., Corbi, F., Passarelli, L., Acocella, V., Davis, T., & Di Vito, M. A. (2019). Stress inversions to forecast magma pathways and eruptive vent location. Science Advances, 5(7), eaau9784. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau9784
SponsorsWe thank M. Bagnardi and D. Bindi for discussion.
Funding: E.R. and F.C. were funded by the European Union Supersite MED-SUV project, grant agreement no. 308665. L.P. was funded by the German Federal Foreign Office through the German Humanitarian Assistance program, grant S05-41-321.50 IDN 03/16. V.A. was funded by the DPC-INGV project
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