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dc.contributor.authorSchorlemmer, Danijel
dc.contributor.authorWerner, Maximilian J.
dc.contributor.authorMarzocchi, Warner
dc.contributor.authorJordan, Thomas H.
dc.contributor.authorOgata, Yosihiko
dc.contributor.authorJackson, David D.
dc.contributor.authorMak, Sum
dc.contributor.authorRhoades, David A.
dc.contributor.authorGerstenberger, Matthew C.
dc.contributor.authorHirata, Naoshi
dc.contributor.authorLiukis, Maria
dc.contributor.authorMaechling, Philip J.
dc.contributor.authorStrader, Anne
dc.contributor.authorTaroni, Matteo
dc.contributor.authorWiemer, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorZechar, Jeremy D.
dc.contributor.authorZhuang, Jiancang
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-11T09:02:01Z
dc.date.available2018-11-11T09:02:01Z
dc.date.issued2018-06-13
dc.identifier.citationSchorlemmer D, Werner MJ, Marzocchi W, Jordan TH, Ogata Y, et al. (2018) The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters 89: 1305–1313. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220180053.
dc.identifier.issn0895-0695
dc.identifier.issn1938-2057
dc.identifier.doi10.1785/0220180053
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/629797
dc.description.abstractThe Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors would like to thank Peter Bird, Zhigang Peng, and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments to improve the article. The authors also want to thank the wider Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) community for their participation and all of their work. Finally, the authors thank the open-source community for providing many tools used in this work. CSEP was established under a grant from the W. M. Keck Foundation and has been supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) under National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1033462 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G12AC20038. SCEC Contribution Number 8036. This work was supported by the New Zealand Strategic Science Investment Fund, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) research Grant Number URF/1/2160-01-01.
dc.publisherSeismological Society of America (SSA)
dc.titleThe Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.journalSeismological Research Letters
dc.contributor.institutionGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany, ds@gfz-potsdam.de
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Bristol, Senate House, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TH, United Kingdom
dc.contributor.institutionIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata, 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
dc.contributor.institutionSouthern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway #169, Los Angeles, California 90089-0742 U.S.A.
dc.contributor.institutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10-3, Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of California, Los Angeles, 595 Charles Young Drive East, Box 951567, Los Angeles, California 90095-1567 U.S.A.
dc.contributor.institutionGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon 5010, PO Box 30-368, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand
dc.contributor.institutionEarthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1, Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan
dc.contributor.institutionJet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109 U.S.A.
dc.contributor.institutionSwiss Seismological Service (SED), ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
dc.contributor.institutionAxis, Alfred Escher-Strasse 50, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland
kaust.grant.numberURF/1/2160-01-01
dc.date.published-online2018-06-13
dc.date.published-print2018-07


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