The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities
Werner, Maximilian J.
Jordan, Thomas H.
Jackson, David D.
Rhoades, David A.
Gerstenberger, Matthew C.
Maechling, Philip J.
Zechar, Jeremy D.
KAUST Grant NumberURF/1/2160-01-01
Online Publication Date2018-06-13
Print Publication Date2018-07
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/629797
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AbstractThe Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
CitationSchorlemmer D, Werner MJ, Marzocchi W, Jordan TH, Ogata Y, et al. (2018) The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters 89: 1305–1313. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220180053.
SponsorsThe authors would like to thank Peter Bird, Zhigang Peng, and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments to improve the article. The authors also want to thank the wider Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) community for their participation and all of their work. Finally, the authors thank the open-source community for providing many tools used in this work. CSEP was established under a grant from the W. M. Keck Foundation and has been supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) under National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1033462 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G12AC20038. SCEC Contribution Number 8036. This work was supported by the New Zealand Strategic Science Investment Fund, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) research Grant Number URF/1/2160-01-01.
PublisherSeismological Society of America (SSA)
JournalSeismological Research Letters