Prospective CSEP Evaluation of 1-Day, 3-Month, and 5-Yr Earthquake Forecasts for Italy
Werner, M. J.
Zechar, J. D.
KAUST Grant NumberURF/1/2160-01-01
Online Publication Date2018-06-13
Print Publication Date2018-07
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/629796
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AbstractIn 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs. CSEP solicited forecasts for seismicity tomorrow, in the next three months, and for the entire 5 yrs. In those 5 yrs, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) recorded 83 target earthquakes with local magnitude 3.95≤M<4.95, and 14 larger shocks. The results show that 1-day forecasts are consistent with the number and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and one version of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is also consistent with the spatial distribution; ensemble forecasts, which we created for the 1-day experiment, are consistent with the number, locations, and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and they perform as well as the best model; none of the 3-month time-independent models produce consistent forecasts; the best 5-yr models account for the fault distribution and the historical seismicity; and 5-yr models based on instrumental seismicity and b-value spatial variation show poor forecasting performance.
CitationTaroni M, Marzocchi W, Schorlemmer D, Werner MJ, Wiemer S, et al. (2018) Prospective CSEP Evaluation of 1-Day, 3-Month, and 5-Yr Earthquake Forecasts for Italy. Seismological Research Letters 89: 1251–1261. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220180031.
SponsorsThis research was supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC; Contribution Number 8022). SCEC is funded by National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1033462 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G12AC20038 and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) research Grant Number URF/1/2160-01-01. Part of the work has been carried out within the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica [CPS]) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV).
PublisherSeismological Society of America (SSA)
JournalSeismological Research Letters