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    Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model

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    Type
    Article
    Authors
    Konda, Gopinadh
    Chowdary, Jasti S. cc
    Srinivas, G
    Gnanaseelan, C
    Parekh, Anant
    Attada, Raju
    Rama Krishna, S S V S
    KAUST Department
    Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
    Date
    2018-05-22
    Online Publication Date
    2018-05-22
    Print Publication Date
    2018-06
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/10754/627985
    
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    Abstract
    In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model.
    Citation
    Konda G, Chowdary JS, Srinivas G, Gnanaseelan C, Parekh A, et al. (2018) Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model. Journal of Earth System Science 127. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-0948-x.
    Sponsors
    The authors thank the Director of ESSO-IITM, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India for support. Computing resources are provided by the ESSO-IITM. Figures are prepared in Grads. Authors are thankful to anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions, which helped us to improve the paper.
    Publisher
    Springer Nature
    Journal
    Journal of Earth System Science
    DOI
    10.1007/s12040-018-0948-x
    Additional Links
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12040-018-0948-x
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1007/s12040-018-0948-x
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Articles; Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering (CEMSE) Division

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