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AuthorTempone, Raul (32)Alouini, Mohamed-Slim (11)Nobile, Fabio (9)Bagci, Hakan (7)Vilanova, Pedro (7)View MoreDepartmentComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences & Engineering (CEMSE) (68)Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division (67)Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Program (44)Electrical Engineering Program (18)Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division (7)View MoreSubjectWireless (11)Bayesian (9)Sampling (9)CEM (7)SDE (7)View MoreTypePoster (57)Presentation (35)Meetings and Proceedings (1)Year (Issue Date)2016 (93)Item AvailabilityOpen Access (93)

Now showing items 1-10 of 93

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Estimation of parameter sensitivities for stochastic reaction networks

Gupta, Ankit (2016-01-07) [Presentation]

Quantification of the effects of parameter uncertainty is an important and challenging problem in Systems Biology. We consider this problem in the context of stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks where the dynamics is described as a continuous-time Markov chain whose states represent the molecular counts of various species. For such models, effects of parameter uncertainty are often quantified by estimating the infinitesimal sensitivities of some observables with respect to model parameters. The aim of this talk is to present a holistic approach towards this problem of estimating parameter sensitivities for stochastic reaction networks. Our approach is based on a generic formula which allows us to construct efficient estimators for parameter sensitivity using simulations of the underlying model. We will discuss how novel simulation techniques, such as tau-leaping approximations, multi-level methods etc. can be easily integrated with our approach and how one can deal with stiff reaction networks where reactions span multiple time-scales. We will demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of our approach using many examples from the biological literature.

A potpourri of results from the KAUST SRI-UQ

Tempone, Raul (2016-01-08) [Presentation]

As the KAUST Strategic Research Initiative for Uncertainty Quantification completes its fourth year of existence we recall several results produced during its exciting journey of discovery. These include, among others, contributions on Multi-level and Multi-index sampling techniques that address both direct and inverse problems. We may discuss also several techniques for Bayesian Inverse Problems and Optimal Experimental Design.

Static models, recursive estimators and the zero-variance approach

Rubino, Gerardo (2016-01-07) [Presentation]

When evaluating dependability aspects of complex systems, most models belong to the static world, where time is not an explicit variable. These models suffer from the same problems than dynamic ones (stochastic processes), such as the frequent combinatorial explosion of the state spaces. In the Monte Carlo domain, on of the most significant difficulties is the rare event situation. In this talk, we describe this context and a recent technique that appears to be at the top performance level in the area, where we combined ideas that lead to very fast estimation procedures with another approach called zero-variance approximation. Both ideas produced a very efficient method that has the right theoretical property concerning robustness, the Bounded Relative Error one. Some examples illustrate the results.

Scalable algorithms for optimal control of stochastic PDEs

Ghattas, Omar; Alexanderian, Alen; Petra, Noemi; Stadler, Georg (2016-01-07) [Presentation]

We present methods for the optimal control of systems governed by partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional uncertain parameters. We consider an objective function that involves the mean and variance of the control objective, leading to a risk-averse optimal control formulation. To make the optimal control problem computationally tractable, we employ a local quadratic approximation of the objective with respect to the uncertain parameter. This enables computation of the mean and variance of the control objective analytically. The resulting risk-averse optimization problem is formulated as a PDE-constrained optimization problem with constraints given by the forward and adjoint PDEs for the first and second-order derivatives of the quantity of interest with respect to the uncertain parameter, and with an objective that involves the trace of a covariance-preconditioned Hessian (of the objective with respect to the uncertain parameters) operator. A randomized trace estimator is used to make tractable the trace computation. Adjoint-based techniques are used to derive an expression for the infinite-dimensional gradient of the risk-averse objective function via the Lagrangian, leading to a quasi-Newton method for solution of the optimal control problem. A specific problem of optimal control of a linear elliptic PDE that describes flow of a fluid in a porous medium with uncertain permeability field is considered. We present numerical results to study the consequences of the local quadratic approximation and the efficiency of the method.

An efficient forward-reverse expectation-maximization algorithm for statistical inference in stochastic reaction networks

Vilanova, Pedro (2016-01-07) [Presentation]

In this work, we present an extension of the forward-reverse representation introduced in Simulation of forward-reverse stochastic representations for conditional diffusions , a 2014 paper by Bayer and Schoenmakers to the context of stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). We apply this stochastic representation to the computation of efficient approximations of expected values of functionals of SRN bridges, i.e., SRNs conditional on their values in the extremes of given time-intervals. We then employ this SRN bridge-generation technique to the statistical inference problem of approximating reaction propensities based on discretely observed data. To this end, we introduce a two-phase iterative inference method in which, during phase I, we solve a set of deterministic optimization problems where the SRNs are replaced by their reaction-rate ordinary differential equations approximation; then, during phase II, we apply the Monte Carlo version of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm to the phase I output. By selecting a set of over-dispersed seeds as initial points in phase I, the output of parallel runs from our two-phase method is a cluster of approximate maximum likelihood estimates. Our results are supported by numerical examples.

A study of Monte Carlo methods for weak approximations of stochastic particle systems in the mean-field?

Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef (2016-01-08) [Presentation]

I discuss using single level and multilevel Monte Carlo methods to compute quantities of interests of a stochastic particle system in the mean-field. In this context, the stochastic particles follow a coupled system of Ito stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Moreover, this stochastic particle system converges to a stochastic mean-field limit as the number of particles tends to infinity. I start by recalling the results of applying different versions of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) for particle systems, both with respect to time steps and the number of particles and using a partitioning estimator. Next, I expand on these results by proposing the use of our recent Multi-index Monte Carlo method to obtain improved convergence rates.

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul (2016-01-08) [Presentation]

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

Adaptive stochastic Galerkin FEM with hierarchical tensor representations

Eigel, Martin (2016-01-08) [Presentation]

PDE with stochastic data usually lead to very high-dimensional algebraic problems which easily become unfeasible for numerical computations because of the dense coupling structure of the discretised stochastic operator. Recently, an adaptive stochastic Galerkin FEM based on a residual a posteriori error estimator was presented and the convergence of the adaptive algorithm was shown. While this approach leads to a drastic reduction of the complexity of the problem due to the iterative discovery of the sparsity of the solution, the problem size and structure is still rather limited. To allow for larger and more general problems, we exploit the tensor structure of the parametric problem by representing operator and solution iterates in the tensor train (TT) format. The (successive) compression carried out with these representations can be seen as a generalisation of some other model reduction techniques, e.g. the reduced basis method. We show that this approach facilitates the efficient computation of different error indicators related to the computational mesh, the active polynomial chaos index set, and the TT rank. In particular, the curse of dimension is avoided.

Optimal mesh hierarchies in Multilevel Monte Carlo methods

Von Schwerin, Erik (2016-01-08) [Presentation]

I will discuss how to choose optimal mesh hierarchies in Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) simulations when computing the expected value of a quantity of interest depending on the solution of, for example, an Ito stochastic differential equation or a partial differential equation with stochastic data. I will consider numerical schemes based on uniform discretization methods with general approximation orders and computational costs. I will compare optimized geometric and non-geometric hierarchies and discuss how enforcing some domain constraints on parameters of MLMC hierarchies affects the optimality of these hierarchies. I will also discuss the optimal tolerance splitting between the bias and the statistical error contributions and its asymptotic behavior. This talk presents joint work with N.Collier, A.-L.Haji-Ali, F. Nobile, and R. Tempone.

Multi-Index Monte Carlo and stochastic collocation methods for random PDEs

Nobile, Fabio; Haji Ali, Abdul Lateef; Tamellini, Lorenzo; Tempone, Raul (2016-01-09) [Presentation]

In this talk we consider the problem of computing statistics of the solution of a partial differential equation with random data, where the random coefficient is parametrized by means of a finite or countable sequence of terms in a suitable expansion. We describe and analyze a Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) and a Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation method (MISC). the former is both a stochastic version of the combination technique introduced by Zenger, Griebel and collaborators and an extension of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method first described by Heinrich and Giles. Instead of using firstorder differences as in MLMC, MIMC uses mixed differences to reduce the variance of the hierarchical differences dramatically. This in turn yields new and improved complexity results, which are natural generalizations of Giles s MLMC analysis, and which increase the domain of problem parameters for which we achieve the optimal convergence, O(TOL-2). On the same vein, MISC is a deterministic combination technique based on mixed differences of spatial approximations and quadratures over the space of random data. Provided enough mixed regularity, MISC can achieve better complexity than MIMC. Moreover, we show that in the optimal case the convergence rate of MISC is only dictated by the convergence of the deterministic solver applied to a one-dimensional spatial problem. We propose optimization procedures to select the most effective mixed differences to include in MIMC and MISC. Such optimization is a crucial step that allows us to make MIMC and MISC computationally effective. We finally show the effectiveness of MIMC and MISC with some computational tests, including tests with a infinite countable number of random parameters.

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