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dc.contributor.authorGong, Zhiqiang
dc.contributor.authorDogar, Muhammad Mubashar
dc.contributor.authorQiao, Shaobo
dc.contributor.authorHu, Po
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Guolin
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-31T11:23:10Z
dc.date.available2017-05-31T11:23:10Z
dc.date.issued2017-04-05
dc.identifier.citationGong Z, Dogar MMA, Qiao S, Hu P, Feng G (2017) Limitations of BCC_CSM’s ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific. Atmospheric Research 193: 184–191. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016.
dc.identifier.issn0169-8095
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/623862
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575082, 41530531, and 41475064) and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201306021).
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809517303782
dc.subjectBCC_CSM
dc.subjectEast Asia-Pacific teleconnection
dc.subjectInteraction
dc.subjectPredictability
dc.subjectSummer precipitation
dc.titleLimitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentEarth Science and Engineering Program
dc.identifier.journalAtmospheric Research
dc.contributor.institutionLaboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Prediction Division, National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, , China
dc.contributor.institutionGlobal Change Impact Studies Centre, Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, , Pakistan
dc.contributor.institutionCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, , China
kaust.personDogar, Muhammad Mubashar
dc.date.published-online2017-04-05
dc.date.published-print2017-09


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