Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances
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AbstractTropical cyclone prediction, in terms of intensification and movement, is important for disaster management and mitigation. Hitherto, research studies were focused on this issue that lead to improvement in numerical models, initial data with data assimilation, physical parameterizations and application of ensemble prediction. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the state-of-art model for cyclone prediction. In the present study, prediction of tropical cyclone (Phailin, 2013) that formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with and without data assimilation using WRF model has been made to assess impacts of data assimilation. WRF model was designed to have nested two domains of 15 and 5 km resolutions. In the present study, numerical experiments are made without and with the assimilation of scatterometer winds, and radiances from ATOVS and ATMS. The model performance was assessed in respect to the movement and intensification of cyclone. ATOVS data assimilation experiment had produced the best prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from the beginning itself instead of sudden deepening.
CitationDodla VB, Srinivas D, Dasari HP, Gubbala CS (2016) Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances. Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions VI. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2223615.
SponsorsThe authors thank Dr. Zhang and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada for providing the observations and satellite data for the assimilation experiments in the study and acknowledge the data source from Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA, USA. The authors also thankful to Dr.V.S.Prasad, NCMRWF for providing the scatterometer wind observations during the study period.
PublisherSPIE-Intl Soc Optical Eng
Conference/Event nameRemote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions VI