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    Changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts over Ethiopia from 1960 to 2013

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    Type
    Article
    Authors
    El Kenawy, A. M.
    McCabe, Matthew cc
    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.
    López-Moreno, J. I.
    Robaa, S. M.
    KAUST Department
    Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division
    Environmental Science and Engineering Program
    Water Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)
    Date
    2016-06-27
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/10754/617798
    
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    Abstract
    Here we present an analysis of drought occurrence and variability in Ethiopia, based on the monthly precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU-v3.22) over the period from 1960 to 2013. The drought events were characterized by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to precipitation data at a temporal scale of 12 months. At the national scale, the results reveal a statistically significant decrease in the severity of droughts over the 54-year period, a pattern that is mostly attributed to a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of high intensity drought episodes (i.e., extreme and very extreme droughts), compared to moderate droughts. To assess the general patterns of drought evolution, a principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the SPI series. PCA results indicate a high spatial heterogeneity in the SPI variations over the investigated period, with ten different spatially well-defined regions identified. These PCA components accounted for 72.9% of the total variance of drought in the region. These regions also showed considerable differences in the temporal variability of drought, as most of the regions exhibited an increase in wetness conditions in recent decades. In contrast, the regions that receive less than 400 mm of annual precipitation showed a declining  trend, with the largest changes occurring over Afar region. Generally, the highly elevated regions over the central Ethiopian Highlands showed the weakest changes, compared to the lowlands. This study confirms the local character of drought evolution over Ethiopia, providing evidence for policy makers to adopt appropriate local policies to cope with the risks of drought. Over Ethiopia, the detailed spatial assessment of drought evolution is required for a better understanding of the possible impacts of recurrent drought on agriculture, food production, soil degradation, human settlements and migrations, as well as energy production and water resources management across Ethiopia.
    Citation
    Changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts over Ethiopia from 1960 to 2013 2016, 42 (1):145 Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica
    Sponsors
    Research reported in this publication was supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. We wish to thank the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Angelia (UK) for providing their data.
    Publisher
    Universidad de la Rioja
    Journal
    Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica
    DOI
    10.18172/cig.2931
    Additional Links
    https://publicaciones.unirioja.es/ojs/index.php/cig/article/view/2931
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.18172/cig.2931
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Articles; Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering (BESE) Division; Environmental Science and Engineering Program; Water Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)

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