Hybrid Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using Scenario Earthquakes for the Istanbul Area
AuthorsReshi, Owais A.
AdvisorsMai, Paul Martin
ProgramEarth Sciences and Engineering
KAUST DepartmentEarth Science and Engineering Program
Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division
Permanent link to this recordhttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/607279
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AbstractSeismic design, analysis and retrofitting of structures demand an intensive assessment of potential ground motions in seismically active regions. Peak ground motions and frequency content of seismic excitations effectively influence the behavior of structures. In regions of sparse ground motion records, ground-motion simulations provide the synthetic seismic records, which not only provide insight into the mechanisms of earthquakes but also help in improving some aspects of earthquake engineering. Broadband ground-motion simulation methods typically utilize physics-based modeling of source and path effects at low frequencies coupled with high frequency semi-stochastic methods. I apply the hybrid simulation method by Mai et al. (2010) to model several scenario earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, an area of high seismic hazard. Simulated ground motions were generated at 75 stations using systematically calibrated model parameters. The region-specific source, path and site model parameters were calibrated by simulating a Mw4.1 Marmara Sea earthquake that occurred on November 16, 2015 on the fault segment in the vicinity of Istanbul. The calibrated parameters were then used to simulate the scenario earthquakes with magnitudes Mw6.0, Mw6.25, Mw6.5 and Mw6.75 over the Marmara Sea fault. Effects of fault geometry, hypocenter location, slip distribution and rupture propagation were thoroughly studied to understand variability in ground motions. A rigorous analysis of waveforms reveal that these parameters are critical for determining the behavior of ground motions especially in the near-field. Comparison of simulated ground motion intensities with ground-motion prediction quations indicates the need of development of the region-specific ground-motion prediction equation for Istanbul area. Peak ground motion maps are presented to illustrate the shaking in the Istanbul area due to the scenario earthquakes. The southern part of Istanbul including Princes Islands show high amplitudes of shaking. The study serves as a step towards dynamic risk quantification for the Istanbul area that integrates physics based ground-motion simulations into an innovative dynamic exposure model to quantify risk.