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dc.contributor.authorBrown, Christopher J.
dc.contributor.authorO'Connor, Mary I.
dc.contributor.authorPoloczanska, Elvira S.
dc.contributor.authorSchoeman, David S.
dc.contributor.authorBuckley, Lauren B.
dc.contributor.authorBurrows, Michael T.
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Carlos M.
dc.contributor.authorHalpern, Benjamin S.
dc.contributor.authorPandolfi, John M.
dc.contributor.authorParmesan, Camille
dc.contributor.authorRichardson, Anthony J.
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-21T06:44:11Z
dc.date.available2015-12-21T06:44:11Z
dc.date.issued2016-02-09
dc.identifier.citationEcological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change 2015:n/a Global Change Biology
dc.identifier.issn13541013
dc.identifier.pmid26661135
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.13184
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/584246
dc.description.abstractClimate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13184
dc.rightsThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Brown, C. J., O'Connor, M. I., Poloczanska, E. S., Schoeman, D. S., Buckley, L. B., Burrows, M. T., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B. S., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C. and Richardson, A. J. (2015), Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change. Glob Change Biol. Accepted Author Manuscript., which has been published in final form at http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13184. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
dc.titleEcological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentRed Sea Research Center (RSRC)
dc.identifier.journalGlobal Change Biology
dc.eprint.versionPost-print
dc.contributor.institutionThe Global Change Institute; The University of Queensland; St Lucia Queensland Australia
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre; University of British Columbia; Vancouver BC Canada V6T1Z4
dc.contributor.institutionImperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL57PY, UK
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Science and Engineering; University of Sunshine Coast; Maroochydore DC, Qld Australia
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Biology; University of Washington; Seattle WA 98115-1800
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Ecology; Scottish Association for Marine Science, Marine Institute; Oban Argyll PA37 1QA UK
dc.contributor.institutionNational Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis; 735 State St. Suite 300 Santa Barbara CA 93101 USA
dc.contributor.institutionARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and School of Biological Sciences; The University of Queensland; St Lucia Queensland 4072 Australia
dc.contributor.institutionMarine Institute; Plymouth University, Drakes Circus; Plymouth Devon PL4 8AA
dc.contributor.institutionCSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, EcoSciences Precinct, Dutton Park; Brisbane QLD 4102 Australia
dc.contributor.institutionBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
dc.contributor.institutionCentre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, 4072, Australia
dc.contributor.affiliationKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
refterms.dateFOA2016-12-10T00:00:00Z
dc.date.published-online2016-02-09
dc.date.published-print2016-04


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