Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change
Name:
Brown_et_al-Global_Change_Biology.pdf
Size:
389.4Kb
Format:
PDF
Description:
Accepted Manuscript
Type
ArticleAuthors
Brown, Christopher J.O'Connor, Mary I.
Poloczanska, Elvira S.
Schoeman, David S.
Buckley, Lauren B.
Burrows, Michael T.
Duarte, Carlos M.

Halpern, Benjamin S.
Pandolfi, John M.
Parmesan, Camille
Richardson, Anthony J.
KAUST Department
Red Sea Research Center (RSRC)Date
2016-02-09Online Publication Date
2016-02-09Print Publication Date
2016-04Permanent link to this record
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/584246
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species’ distribution and phenology changes.Citation
Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change 2015:n/a Global Change BiologyPublisher
WileyJournal
Global Change BiologyPubMed ID
26661135Additional Links
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13184ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1111/gcb.13184
Scopus Count
Related articles
- Species' traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta-analysis.
- Authors: MacLean SA, Beissinger SR
- Issue date: 2017 Oct
- Illuminating geographical patterns in species' range shifts.
- Authors: Grenouillet G, Comte L
- Issue date: 2014 Oct
- Predicting the sensitivity of butterfly phenology to temperature over the past century.
- Authors: Kharouba HM, Paquette SR, Kerr JT, Vellend M
- Issue date: 2014 Feb
- Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot.
- Authors: Sunday JM, Pecl GT, Frusher S, Hobday AJ, Hill N, Holbrook NJ, Edgar GJ, Stuart-Smith R, Barrett N, Wernberg T, Watson RA, Smale DA, Fulton EA, Slawinski D, Feng M, Radford BT, Thompson PA, Bates AE
- Issue date: 2015 Sep
- Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.
- Authors: Gillings S, Balmer DE, Fuller RJ
- Issue date: 2015 Jun