Taroni, M.; Marzocchi, W.; Schorlemmer, D.; Werner, M. J.; Wiemer, S.; Zechar, J. D.; Heiniger, L.; Euchner, F.(Seismological Research Letters, Seismological Society of America (SSA), 2018-06-13)[Article]
In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs. CSEP solicited forecasts for seismicity tomorrow, in the next three months, and for the entire 5 yrs. In those 5 yrs, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) recorded 83 target earthquakes with local magnitude 3.95≤M<4.95, and 14 larger shocks. The results show that 1-day forecasts are consistent with the number and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and one version of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is also consistent with the spatial distribution; ensemble forecasts, which we created for the 1-day experiment, are consistent with the number, locations, and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and they perform as well as the best model; none of the 3-month time-independent models produce consistent forecasts; the best 5-yr models account for the fault distribution and the historical seismicity; and 5-yr models based on instrumental seismicity and b-value spatial variation show poor forecasting performance.
Schorlemmer, Danijel; Werner, Maximilian J.; Marzocchi, Warner; Jordan, Thomas H.; Ogata, Yosihiko; Jackson, David D.; Mak, Sum; Rhoades, David A.; Gerstenberger, Matthew C.; Hirata, Naoshi; Liukis, Maria; Maechling, Philip J.; Strader, Anne; Taroni, Matteo; Wiemer, Stefan; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Zhuang, Jiancang(Seismological Research Letters, Seismological Society of America (SSA), 2018-06-13)[Article]
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
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