Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorVillarino, E
dc.contributor.authorChust, G
dc.contributor.authorLicandro, P
dc.contributor.authorButenschön, M
dc.contributor.authorIbaibarriaga, L
dc.contributor.authorLarrañaga, A
dc.contributor.authorIrigoien, Xabier
dc.date.accessioned2015-08-11T11:36:45Z
dc.date.available2015-08-11T11:36:45Z
dc.date.issued2015-07-02
dc.identifier.citationModelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change 2015, 531:121 Marine Ecology Progress Series
dc.identifier.issn0171-8630
dc.identifier.issn1616-1599
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/meps11299
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/565839
dc.description.abstractAdvances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInter-Research Science Center
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v531/p121-142/
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Marine Ecology Progress Series
dc.subjectZooplankton
dc.subjectHabitat suitability
dc.subjectGAM
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic
dc.subjectBiogeography
dc.titleModelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change
dc.typeArticle
dc.contributor.departmentBiological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division
dc.contributor.departmentMarine Science Program
dc.contributor.departmentRed Sea Research Center (RSRC)
dc.identifier.journalMarine Ecology Progress Series
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDF
dc.contributor.institutionAZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Txatxarramendi ugartea z/g, 48395 Sukarrieta (Bizkaia), Spain
dc.contributor.institutionSir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
dc.contributor.institutionPlymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK
dc.contributor.institutionLaboratory of Stream Ecology, Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of the Basque Country, PO Box 644, 48080 Bilbao, Spain
dc.contributor.affiliationKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
kaust.personIrigoien, Xabier
refterms.dateFOA2020-07-02T00:00:00Z


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Name:
m531p121.pdf
Size:
9.395Mb
Format:
PDF
Description:
Main article

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record