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    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

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    Type
    Article
    Authors
    Driscoll, Simon
    Bozzo, Alessio
    Gray, Lesley J.
    Robock, Alan
    Stenchikov, Georgiy L. cc
    KAUST Department
    Earth Science and Engineering Program
    Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division
    Date
    2012-09-06
    Online Publication Date
    2012-09-06
    Print Publication Date
    2012-09-16
    Permanent link to this record
    http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552130
    
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    Abstract
    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.
    Citation
    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions 2012, 117 (D17):n/a Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    Publisher
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Journal
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    DOI
    10.1029/2012JD017607
    Additional Links
    http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD017607
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1029/2012JD017607
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Articles; Physical Science and Engineering (PSE) Division; Earth Science and Engineering Program

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