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Oil Spill Risk Analysis For The NEOM Shoreline(2023-09-21) [Preprint]A risk analysis is conducted considering an array of release sources located around the NEOM shoreline. The sources are selected close to the coast and in neighboring regions of high marine traffic. The evolution of oil spills released by these sources is simulated using the MOHID model, driven by validated, high-resolution met-ocean fields of the Red Sea. For each source, simulations are conducted over a 4-week period, starting from first, tenth and twentieth days of each month, covering five consecutive years. A total of 48 simulations are thus conducted for each source location, adequately reflecting the variability of met-ocean conditions in the region. The risk associated with each source is described in terms of amount of oil beached, and by the elapsed time required for the spilled oil to reach the NEOM coast, extending from the Gulf of Aqaba in the North to Duba in the South. To further characterize the impact of individual sources, a finer analysis is performed by segmenting the NEOM shoreline, based on important coastal development and installation sites. For each subregion, source and release event considered, a histogram of the amount of volume beached is generated, also classifying individual events in terms of the corresponding arrival times. In addition, for each subregion considered, an inverse analysis is conducted to identify regions of dependence of the cumulative risk, estimated using the collection of all sources and events considered. The transport of oil around the NEOM shorelines is promoted by chaotic circulations and northwest winds in summer, and a dominant cyclonic eddy in winter. Hence, spills originating from release sources located close to the NEOM shorelines are characterized by large monthly variations in arrival times, ranging from less than a week to more than two weeks. Similarly, large variations in the volume fraction of beached oil, ranging from less then 50\% to more than 80\% are reported. The results of this study provide key information regarding the location of dominant oil spill risk sources, the severity of the potential release events, as well as the time frames within which mitigation actions may need to deployed.
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Past, Present, and Future of Software for Bayesian Inference(Accepted by Statistical Science, 2023-09-19) [Article]Software tools for Bayesian inference have undergone rapid evolution in the past three decades, following popularisation of the first generation MCMC-sampler implementations. More recently, exponential growth in the number of users has been stimulated both by the active development of new packages by the machine learning community and popularity of specialist software for particular applications. This review aims to summarize the most popular software and provide a useful map for a reader to navigate the world of Bayesian computation. We anticipate a vigorous continued development of algorithms and corresponding software in multiple research fields, such as probabilistic programming, likelihood-free inference, and Bayesian neural networks, which will further broaden the possibilities for employing the Bayesian paradigm in exciting applications.
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Spatiotemporal variability of droughts over the Arabian Peninsula and associated mechanisms(Research Square Platform LLC, 2023-09-19) [Preprint]This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of drought and associated physical processes over the Arabian Peninsula (AP). For this purpose, we computed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the period 1951–2020 using the Climate Research Unit and ERA5 Reanalysis datasets. By applying rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis on the SPEI data, we identified four homogeneous and coherent drought regions. In comparison with the southern region, the droughts in the northern homogeneous regions were more significantly correlated. All four sub-regions of the AP exhibit a significant drying trend (p < 0.01) with an abrupt acceleration in drought frequency and intensity over the last two decades. The increase in droughts is associated with the reduction of synoptic activity and an increase in the high pressure over the AP. Seasonally, potential evapotranspiration is the dominant driver of summer droughts in the AP, whereas both precipitation and temperature are important for driving winter droughts. The summer droughts, mainly over the northern AP, are due to the occurrence of an anomalous equivalent barotropic high associated with anomalous dry and hot conditions. However, anomalous dry conditions in winter are a result of an anomalous paucity of winter storms caused by the weakening of the sub-tropical jets.
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Relative Insignificance of Polyamide Layer Selectivity for Seawater Electrolysis Applications(Environmental Science & Technology, American Chemical Society (ACS), 2023-09-18) [Article]Low-cost polyamide thin-film composite (TFC) membranes are being explored as alternatives to cation exchange membranes for seawater electrolysis. An optimal membrane should have a low electrical resistance to minimize applied potentials needed for water electrolysis and be able to block chloride ions present in a seawater catholyte from reaching the anode. The largest energy loss associated with a TFC membrane was the Nernstian overpotential of 0.74 V (equivalent to 37 Ω cm<sup>2</sup> at 20 mA cm<sup>-2</sup>), derived from the pH difference between the anolyte and catholyte and not the membrane ohmic overpotential. Based on analysis using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, the pristine TFC membrane contributed only 5.00 Ω cm<sup>2</sup> to the ohmic resistance. Removing the polyester support layer reduced the resistance by 79% to only 1.04 Ω cm<sup>2</sup>, without altering the salt ion transport between the electrolytes. Enlarging the pore size (∼5 times) in the polyamide active layer minimally impacted counterion transport across the membrane during electrolysis, but it increased the total concentration of chloride transported by 60%. Overall, this study suggests that TFC membranes with thinner but mechanically strong supporting layers and size-selective active layers should reduce energy consumption and the potential for chlorine generation for seawater electrolyzers.
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Reliable Transmission of Short Packets in Cognitive Radio Inspired NOMA Network(IEEE Systems Journal, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2023-09-18) [Article]Aiming at the high-performance requirements of Internet of Things (IoT) scenarios, a cognitive radio-inspired nonorthogonal multiple access (CR-NOMA) scheme in short packet communication is investigated. Primary and secondary users share the same nonorthogonal communication resource block to achieve high spectral efficiency. A priority selection combination method is designed and employed by the primary user considering the nonnegligible decoding error rate in short packet communication. We focus on the transmission performance of the secondary users while ensuring the reliable communication of the primary user as a priority. To characterize the performance of the CR-NOMA network, approximate closed-form expressions of the average block error rate (BLER) for primary and secondary users are derived and analyzed. The results show that the communication reliability and throughput of the primary user with the CR-NOMA scheme are enhanced compared with the no-CR scheme. Meanwhile, the secondary users can also achieve reliable communication on the premise of improving the performance of the primary user through spectrum sharing. A performance tradeoff between primary and secondary users can be achieved through power allocation. Furthermore, there is a tradeoff between BLER and throughput, and the maximum throughput can be achieved by choosing an optimal blocklength.
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Submarine optical fiber communication provides an unrealized deep-sea observation network(Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-09-18) [Article]Oceans are crucial to human survival, providing natural resources and most of the global oxygen supply, and are responsible for a large portion of worldwide economic development. Although it is widely considered a silent world, the sea is filled with natural sounds generated by marine life and geological processes. Man-made underwater sounds, such as active sonars, maritime traffic, and offshore oil and mineral exploration, have significantly affected underwater soundscapes and species. In this work, we report on a joint optical fiber-based communication and sensing technology aiming to reduce noise pollution in the sea while providing connectivity simultaneously with a variety of underwater applications. The designed multifunctional fiber-based system enables two-way data transfer, monitoring marine life and ship movement near the deployed fiber at the sea bottom and sensing temperature. The deployed fiber is equally harnessed to transfer energy that the internet of underwater things (IoUTs) devices can harvest. The reported approach significantly reduces the costs and effects of monitoring marine ecosystems while ensuring data transfer and ocean monitoring applications and providing continuous power for submerged IoUT devices.
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Opportunistic Mobile Networks Content Delivery for Important but Non-Urgent Traffic(IEEE Access, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2023-09-18) [Article]As delay-tolerant and large-size content, for example, software updates, TV series, and virtual reality related content, become more prevalent in mobile networks, the need for efficient content delivery mechanisms becomes increasingly important,the traffic that carries these contents is not suitable to be evaluated using traditional network performance metrics, e.g., delay, throughput, and jitter. Based on this insight, we propose the solution of content dissemination from opportunistic mobile social communications (CODOMOC)which utilizes energy cost as an alternative performance metric and exploits daily human activity mobility pattern to determine how, when, and where the contents should be disseminated. Then, we introduce two options in CODOMOC to achieve different network operators’ objectives. The two options are the Only Dense (OD) option which aims at minimizing energy consumption for network operators and the Broadcast Efficiency (BE) option to further reduce the total carbon footprint of network operators. CODOMOC is evaluated by comparing with a mobility-based broadcast method. The results show that CODOMOC reduces the average energy consumption by 51% and 60% in the OD and BE options respectively. The proposed solution equipped with the two modes is expected to provide a higher degree of flexibility and reduce energy consumption for mobile networks, while, admittedly, the application scope of the solution and the associated methodologies proposed in this paper is restricted to important but non-urgent traffic delivery.
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Comparative DFT Study of Small Anionic Silver and Copper Clusters: Evolution of Structure and Physicochemical Properties(The Journal of Physical Chemistry C, American Chemical Society (ACS), 2023-09-18) [Article]Based on both total energy calculations and comparison of experimental and calculated characteristics of the photoelectron spectrum (PHES), the structural assignment of clusters Agn– (n = 13–16) and Cum– (m = 14–17) has been made using the density functional theory (DFT) model with our previously developed S2LYP functional. A comparative study of size dependence of geometry, electronic structure, and physicochemical properties has been carried out for a series of anionic silver and copper clusters containing up to 20 atoms. For the cases when two isomers contribute to the experimental PHES, the isomerization barriers and molar ratio of isomers were estimated. It has been shown that the geometry and the properties that are determined mainly by ns-derived electronic states are similar for copper and silver clusters. However, due to the larger contribution of (n–1)d-electrons to the chemical bond, the potential energy surface of copper clusters is less smooth, and these clusters are characterized by higher isomerization energies compared to silver clusters. The isomerization energies of clusters and the number of isomers with similar energies increase with enlarging cluster size. Thus, clusters containing less than 20 atoms easily overcome the barriers of intramolecular isomerization (i.e., behave like liquids). However, it is expected that cooled clusters containing several tens of atoms will have a rigid geometry due to high intramolecular isomerization energies.
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WinSyn: Jpeg and Raw data(2023-09-17) [Dataset]
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Coupled fluid flow, solute transport and dissolution processes in discrete fracture networks: an advanced Discontinuous Galerkin model(Advances in Water Resources, Elsevier BV, 2023-09-17) [Article]Modeling dissolution processes in discrete fracture networks (DFNs) is a challenging task. Challenges are related to the highly nonlinear coupling between flow, mass transport, and reactive processes associated with fracture aperture evolution by dissolution. Further, advection-dominated transport due to fast fluid flow in fractures renders the problem more complex from a computational point of view, as traditional numerical methods may introduce unphysical oscillations or excessive numerical diffusion. The Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method is known to be suitable for the simulation of advection-dominated transport. In this work, an advanced DG model is developed to model transport with dissolution in DFNs. We propose an upwind formulation to deal with the upstream concentration at the intersection of several fractures. The upstream concentration at an intersection node is calculated based on the average nodal concentrations of all the fractures having an inflow at that node, weighted by the volumetric fluxes of these fractures. The dispersion term is discretized with the Mixed Finite Element (MFE) method, which ensures the continuity of the dispersive flux at the intersection of fractures with different apertures. The obtained nonlinear coupled flow-transport-dissolution equations are discretized in time with a high-order scheme via the method of lines (MOL). Numerical examples and comparisons with standard finite element (FE) and finite volume (FV) solutions are performed to investigate the correctness and efficiency of the developed model. Results show that the new DG-DFN model avoids unphysical oscillations encountered with the standard FE method and strongly reduces the numerical diffusion observed with the upwind FV scheme. The DG-DFN model is then used to investigate the effect of the dissolution rate on the flow, transport, and aperture evolution processes for a single fracture and for a DFN. A quasi-linear evolution of the fracture aperture is observed for low dissolution rates. For high dissolution rates, a funnel-shaped enlargement is observed with a significant widening for the fractures near the inlet and minor effects for those away from the injection location.
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A marginalized two-part joint model for a longitudinal biomarker and a terminal event with application to advanced head and neck cancers(Pharmaceutical Statistics, Wiley, 2023-09-17) [Article]The sum of the longest diameter (SLD) of the target lesions is a longitudinal biomarker used to assess tumor response in cancer clinical trials, which can inform about early treatment effect. This biomarker is semicontinuous, often characterized by an excess of zeros and right skewness. Conditional two-part joint models were introduced to account for the excess of zeros in the longitudinal biomarker distribution and link it to a time-to-event outcome. A limitation of the conditional two-part model is that it only provides an effect of covariates, such as treatment, on the conditional mean of positive biomarker values, and not an overall effect on the biomarker, which is often of clinical relevance. As an alternative, we propose in this article, a marginalized two-part joint model (M-TPJM) for the repeated measurements of the SLD and a terminal event, where the covariates affect the overall mean of the biomarker. Our simulation studies assessed the good performance of the marginalized model in terms of estimation and coverage rates. Our application of the M-TPJM to a randomized clinical trial of advanced head and neck cancer shows that the combination of panitumumab in addition with chemotherapy increases the odds of observing a disappearance of all target lesions compared to chemotherapy alone, leading to a possible indirect effect of the combined treatment on time to death.
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HLA-Based Banking of Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in Saudi Arabia(Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2023-09-17) [Preprint]Human iPSCs' derivation and use in clinical studies are transforming medicine. Yet, there is a high cost and long waiting time for autologous iPS-based cellular therapy, and the genetic engineering of hypo-immunogenic iPS cell lines is hampered with numerous hurdles. Therefore, it is increasingly interesting to create cell stocks based on HLA haplotype distribution in a given population. In this study, we assessed the potential of HLA-based iPS banking for the Saudi population. First, we analyzed the HLA database of the Saudi Stem Cell Donor Registry (SSCDR), which contains high-resolution HLA genotype data of 64,315 registered Saudi donors at the time of analysis. We found that only 13 iPS lines would be required to cover 30% of the Saudi population, 39 iPS lines would offer 50% coverage and 596 for more than 90% coverage. Next, As a proof-of-concept, we launched the first HLA-based banking of iPSCs in Saudi Arabia. Using clinically relevant methods, we generated the first iPSC line from a homozygous donor for the most common HLA haplotype in Saudi. The two generated clones expressed pluripotency markers, could be differentiated into all three germ layers, beating cardiomyocytes and neuronal progenitors. To ensure that our reprogramming method generates genetically stable iPSCs, we assessed the mutational burden in the generated clones and the original blood sample from which the iPSCs were derived using whole-genome sequencing. All detected variants were found in the original donor sample and were classified as benign according to current guidelines of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG). This study sets a road map for introducing iPS-based cell therapy in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Data Center-Enabled High Altitude Platforms: A Green Computing Alternative(Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Mobile Computing (TMC), 2023-09-17) [Article]Information technology organizations and companies are seeking greener alternatives to traditional terrestrial data centers to mitigate global warming and reduce carbon emissions. Currently, terrestrial data centers consume a significant amount of energy, estimated at about 1.5% of worldwide electricity use. Furthermore, the increasing demand for data-intensive applications is expected to raise energy consumption, making it crucial to consider sustainable computing paradigms. In this study, we propose a data center-enabled High Altitude Platform (HAP) system, where a flying data center supports the operation of terrestrial data centers. We conduct a detailed analytical study to assess the energy benefits and communication requirements of this approach. Our findings demonstrate that a data center-enabled HAP is more energy-efficient than a traditional terrestrial data center, owing to the naturally low temperature in the stratosphere and the ability to harvest solar energy. Adopting a data center-HAP can save up to 14% of energy requirements while overcoming the offloading outage problem and the associated delay resulting from server distribution. Our study highlights the potential of a data centerenabled HAP system as a sustainable computing solution to meet the growing energy demands and reduce carbon footprint.
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On adaptive kernel intensity estimation on linear networks(arXiv, 2023-09-17) [Preprint]In the analysis of spatial point patterns on linear networks, a critical statistical objective is estimating the first-order intensity function, representing the expected number of points within specific subsets of the network. Typically, non-parametric approaches employing heating kernels are used for this estimation. However, a significant challenge arises in selecting appropriate bandwidths before conducting the estimation. We study an intensity estimation mechanism that overcomes this limitation using adaptive estimators, where bandwidths adapt to the data points in the pattern. While adaptive estimators have been explored in other contexts, their application in linear networks remains underexplored. We investigate the adaptive intensity estimator within the linear network context and extend a partitioning technique based on bandwidth quantiles to expedite the estimation process significantly. Through simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of this technique, showing that the partition estimator closely approximates the direct estimator while drastically reducing computation time. As a practical application, we employ our method to estimate the intensity of traffic accidents in a neighbourhood in Medellin, Colombia, showcasing its real-world relevance and efficiency.
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Effects of multi-observations uncertainty and models similarity on climate change projections(npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-09-16) [Article]Climate change projections (CCPs) are based on the multimodel means of individual climate model simulations that are assumed to be independent. However, model similarity leads to projections biased toward the largest set of similar models and intermodel uncertainty underestimation. We assessed the influences of similarities in CMIP6 through CMIP3 CCPs. We ascertained model similarity from shared physics/dynamics and initial conditions by comparing simulated spatial temperature and precipitation with the corresponding observed patterns and accounting for intermodel spread relative to the observational uncertainty, which is also critical. After accounting for similarity, the information from 57 CMIP6, 47 CMIP5, and 24 CMIP3 models can be explained by just 11 independent models without significant differences in globally averaged climate change statistics. On average, independent models indicate a lower global-mean temperature rise of 0.25 °C (~0.5 °C–1 °C in some regions) relative to all models by the end of the 21st century under CMIP6’s highest emission scenario.
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Printed Electrodes Based on Vanadium Dioxide and Gold Nanoparticles for Asymmetric Supercapacitors(Nanomaterials, MDPI AG, 2023-09-16) [Article]Printed energy storage components attracted attention for being incorporated into bendable electronics. In this research, a homogeneous and stable ink based on vanadium dioxide (VO2) is hydrothermally synthesized with a non-toxic solvent. The structural and morphological properties of the synthesized material are determined to be well-crystalline monoclinic-phase nanoparticles. The charge storage mechanisms and evaluations are specified for VO2 electrodes, gold (Au) electrodes, and VO2/Au electrodes using cyclic voltammetry, galvanostatic charge–discharge, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The VO2 electrode shows an electrical double layer and a redox reaction in the positive and negative voltage ranges with a slightly higher areal capacitance of 9 mF/cm2. The VO2/Au electrode exhibits an areal capacitance of 16 mF cm−2, which is double that of the VO2 electrode. Due to the excellent electrical conductivity of gold, the areal capacitance 18 mF cm−2 of the Au electrode is the highest among them. Based on that, Au positive electrodes and VO2 negative electrodes are used to build an asymmetric supercapacitor. The device delivers an areal energy density of 0.45 μWh cm−2 at an areal power density of 70 μW cm−2 at 1.4 V in the aqueous electrolyte of potassium hydroxide. We provide a promising electrode candidate for cost-effective, lightweight, environmentally friendly printed supercapacitors.
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Methanol oxy-combustion and supercritical water oxidation: A ReaxFF molecular dynamics study(Energy, Elsevier BV, 2023-09-15) [Article]Energy and environmental concerns are motivating the use of renewable fuels such as methanol. Furthermore, the implementation of the oxy-combustion and hydrothermal combustion technologies can help to improve the performance of power generation and reduce NOx emissions. These aspects can contribute to achieve the transition to cleaner sources of energy that is being sought worldwide, and thus we carried out the first molecular dynamics study of the oxidation of methanol at 2700 K and 3000 K in four supercritical environments with compositions CH3OH + O2, CH3OH + O2+CO2, CH3OH + O2+H2O, and CH3OH + O2+CO2+H2O. Reaction mechanisms were obtained and revealed that the initiation reaction is CH3OH unimolecular dissociation in all cases. The CH3OH oxidation chemistry changes when O2 is replaced by supercritical CO2 (sCO2) and/or H2O (sH2O), and a new route for the important oxidation sequence CH3OH→CH2OH→H2CO→CHO→CO→CO2 is reported. The rate constants for the CH3OH unimolecular dissociation were calculated, indicating a positive effect of sH2O. Furthermore, the collisions of CH3OH molecules with those of H2O and CO2 were analyzed with molecular dynamics simulations and quantum chemistry calculations, suggesting that collisions with H2O can activate more efficiently CH3OH for a prospective dissociation event. This study is aimed to help in the development of kinetic models for CH3OH oxidation/pyrolysis in sCO2 and sH2O, and thus in the implementation of the oxy-combustion and hydrothermal combustion techniques for this alternative fuel.
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Uncertainty quantification in coastal aquifers using the multilevel Monte Carlo method(PAMM, Wiley, 2023-09-15) [Article]We are solving a problem of salinisation of coastal aquifers. As a test case example, we consider the Henry saltwater intrusion problem. Since porosity, permeability and recharge are unknown or only known at a few points, we model them using random fields and random variables. The Henry problem describes a two-phase flow and is non-linear and time-dependent. The solution to be found is the expectation of the salt mass fraction, which is uncertain and time-dependent. To estimate this expectation, we use the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. The MLMC method takes just a few samples on computationally expensive (fine) meshes and more samples on cheap (coarse) meshes. Then, by building a telescoping sum, the MLMC method estimates the expected value at a much lower computational cost than the classical Monte Carlo method. The deterministic solver used here is the well-known parallel and scalable ug4 solver.
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FLT3 inhibitors and novel therapeutic strategies to reverse AML resistance: an updated comprehensive review.(Critical reviews in oncology/hematology, Elsevier BV, 2023-09-15) [Article]FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) mutations occur in almost 30% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. Despite the initial clinical efficacy of FLT3 inhibitors, many treated AML patients with mutated FLT3 eventually relapse. This review critically discusses the potential and challenges of FLT3-targeted therapies and sheds light on their drug interactions as well as potential biomarkers. Furthermore, we focus on the molecular mechanisms underlying the resistance of FLT3 internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD) AMLs to FLT3 inhibitors alongside novel therapeutic strategies to reverse resistance. Notably, dynamic heterogeneous patterns of clonal selection and evolution contribute to the resistance of FLT3-ITD AMLs to FLT3 inhibitors. Ongoing preclinical research and clinical trials are actively directed towards devising rational "personalized" or "patient-tailored" combinatorial therapeutic regimens to effectively treat patients with FLT3 mutated AML.
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Redox-couple-assisted CO2 capture on solid-electrolyte reactor(Chem, Elsevier BV, 2023-09-15) [Article]Electrochemical carbon capture offers a promising approach for capturing scarce CO2 from industrial emissions or the atmosphere. Challenges persist in current techniques, such as low capture rates and oxygen sensitivity. This article previews the latest findings by Wang and co-workers published in Nature, reporting the oxygen/water redox couple in a solid-electrolyte reactor for continuous and modular CO2 capture.
