Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/625648
Title:
Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake
Authors:
Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin ( 0000-0002-9744-4964 ) ; Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro
Abstract:
We develop a framework for assessing the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation characteristics for stochastic physics-based scenarios of mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. The method is applied to the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake, and tested against observed inundation maps at several locations along the Tohoku coast, using 11 different, previously published, rupture models for this devastating tsunamgenic earthquake. The earthquake rupture models differ in fault dimension (length and width), geometry (dip, strike and top-edge depth), as well as asperity characteristics (slip heterogeneity on the fault plane). The resulting source variability allows exploring a wide range of tsunami scenarios for an Mw9 mega-thrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant sensitivity of inundation to the details of the rupture realization. Therefore, relying on a single particular earthquake rupture model as a representative case when varying earthquake source characteristics may lead to under-representation of the variability of potential scenarios. Moreover, the proposed framework facilitates the rigorous development of critical scenarios for tsunami hazard and risk assessments, which are particularly useful for tsunami hazard mapping and disaster preparedness planning.
KAUST Department:
Earth Science and Engineering Program
Citation:
Mori N, Mai PM, Goda K, Yasuda T (2017) Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. Coastal Engineering 127: 88–105. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.013.
Publisher:
Elsevier BV
Journal:
Coastal Engineering
KAUST Grant Number:
BAS 1339-01-01
Issue Date:
28-Jun-2017
DOI:
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.013
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0378-3839
Sponsors:
The bathymetry and elevation data for the Tohoku region were provided by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government. The run-up and inundation survey data were obtained from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group (http://www.coastal.jp/tsunami2011/). This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/M001067/1) as well as by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST; Research grant BAS 1339-01-01), and the Disaster Prevention Research Institute at Kyoto University.
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037838391630223X
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Earth Science and Engineering Program

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorMori, Nobuhitoen
dc.contributor.authorMai, Paul Martinen
dc.contributor.authorGoda, Katsuichiroen
dc.contributor.authorYasuda, Tomohiroen
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-03T12:49:31Z-
dc.date.available2017-10-03T12:49:31Z-
dc.date.issued2017-06-28en
dc.identifier.citationMori N, Mai PM, Goda K, Yasuda T (2017) Tsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. Coastal Engineering 127: 88–105. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.013.en
dc.identifier.issn0378-3839en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.013en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/625648-
dc.description.abstractWe develop a framework for assessing the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation characteristics for stochastic physics-based scenarios of mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. The method is applied to the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake, and tested against observed inundation maps at several locations along the Tohoku coast, using 11 different, previously published, rupture models for this devastating tsunamgenic earthquake. The earthquake rupture models differ in fault dimension (length and width), geometry (dip, strike and top-edge depth), as well as asperity characteristics (slip heterogeneity on the fault plane). The resulting source variability allows exploring a wide range of tsunami scenarios for an Mw9 mega-thrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant sensitivity of inundation to the details of the rupture realization. Therefore, relying on a single particular earthquake rupture model as a representative case when varying earthquake source characteristics may lead to under-representation of the variability of potential scenarios. Moreover, the proposed framework facilitates the rigorous development of critical scenarios for tsunami hazard and risk assessments, which are particularly useful for tsunami hazard mapping and disaster preparedness planning.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThe bathymetry and elevation data for the Tohoku region were provided by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government. The run-up and inundation survey data were obtained from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group (http://www.coastal.jp/tsunami2011/). This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/M001067/1) as well as by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST; Research grant BAS 1339-01-01), and the Disaster Prevention Research Institute at Kyoto University.en
dc.publisherElsevier BVen
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037838391630223Xen
dc.subjectTsunami simulationen
dc.subject2011 Tohoku earthquakeen
dc.subjectInundation mappingen
dc.subjectStochastic earthquake slipen
dc.subjectSensitivity analysisen
dc.subjectEpistemic uncertaintyen
dc.titleTsunami inundation variability from stochastic rupture scenarios: Application to multiple inversions of the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquakeen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentEarth Science and Engineering Programen
dc.identifier.journalCoastal Engineeringen
dc.contributor.institutionDisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japanen
dc.contributor.institutionCivil Engineering, University of Bristol, United Kingdomen
dc.contributor.institutionEnvironmental and Urban Engineering, Kansai University, Japanen
kaust.authorMai, Paul Martinen
kaust.grant.numberBAS 1339-01-01en
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