Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/623862
Title:
Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
Authors:
Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin
Abstract:
This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.
KAUST Department:
Earth Science and Engineering Program
Citation:
Gong Z, Dogar MMA, Qiao S, Hu P, Feng G (2017) Limitations of BCC_CSM’s ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific. Atmospheric Research 193: 184–191. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016.
Publisher:
Elsevier BV
Journal:
Atmospheric Research
Issue Date:
5-Apr-2017
DOI:
10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0169-8095
Sponsors:
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575082, 41530531, and 41475064) and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201306021).
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809517303782
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Earth Science and Engineering Program

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorGong, Zhiqiangen
dc.contributor.authorDogar, Muhammad Mubasharen
dc.contributor.authorQiao, Shaoboen
dc.contributor.authorHu, Poen
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Guolinen
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-31T11:23:10Z-
dc.date.available2017-05-31T11:23:10Z-
dc.date.issued2017-04-05en
dc.identifier.citationGong Z, Dogar MMA, Qiao S, Hu P, Feng G (2017) Limitations of BCC_CSM’s ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific. Atmospheric Research 193: 184–191. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016.en
dc.identifier.issn0169-8095en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/623862-
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575082, 41530531, and 41475064) and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201306021).en
dc.publisherElsevier BVen
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809517303782en
dc.subjectBCC_CSMen
dc.subjectEast Asia-Pacific teleconnectionen
dc.subjectInteractionen
dc.subjectPredictabilityen
dc.subjectSummer precipitationen
dc.titleLimitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacificen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentEarth Science and Engineering Programen
dc.identifier.journalAtmospheric Researchen
dc.contributor.institutionLaboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Prediction Division, National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, , Chinaen
dc.contributor.institutionGlobal Change Impact Studies Centre, Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, , Pakistanen
dc.contributor.institutionCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, , Chinaen
kaust.authorDogar, Muhammad Mubasharen
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