Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/622871
Title:
Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO
Authors:
Predybaylo, Evgeniya; Stenchikov, Georgiy L. ( 0000-0001-9033-4925 ) ; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zeng, Fanrong
Abstract:
Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption's seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.
KAUST Department:
Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division
Citation:
Predybaylo E, Stenchikov GL, Wittenberg AT, Zeng F (2017) Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025796.
Publisher:
Wiley-Blackwell
Journal:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Issue Date:
16-Jan-2017
DOI:
10.1002/2016JD025796
Type:
Article
ISSN:
2169-897X
Sponsors:
We thank Hans-F. Graf, Alan Robock, and Jim Carton for valuable discussions. The research reported in this publication was supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. In particular, for computer time, the resources of the KAUST Supercomputing Laboratory were used, in addition to those of NOAA GFDL. The simulation results and supporting data sets are available from the corresponding author upon request. NOAA ERSST V4 data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
Additional Links:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025796/full
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorPredybaylo, Evgeniyaen
dc.contributor.authorStenchikov, Georgiy L.en
dc.contributor.authorWittenberg, Andrew T.en
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Fanrongen
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-12T13:38:49Z-
dc.date.available2017-02-12T13:38:49Z-
dc.date.issued2017-01-16en
dc.identifier.citationPredybaylo E, Stenchikov GL, Wittenberg AT, Zeng F (2017) Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025796.en
dc.identifier.issn2169-897Xen
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2016JD025796en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/622871-
dc.description.abstractObservations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption's seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank Hans-F. Graf, Alan Robock, and Jim Carton for valuable discussions. The research reported in this publication was supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. In particular, for computer time, the resources of the KAUST Supercomputing Laboratory were used, in addition to those of NOAA GFDL. The simulation results and supporting data sets are available from the corresponding author upon request. NOAA ERSST V4 data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.en
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwellen
dc.relation.urlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025796/fullen
dc.rightsThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectCentral Pacific El Niñoen
dc.subjectEastern Pacific El Niñoen
dc.subjectOcean dynamical thermostaten
dc.subjectPinatubo forcingen
dc.subjectSensitivityen
dc.subjectUpwellingen
dc.titleImpacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSOen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentPhysical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheresen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton New Jersey USAen
kaust.authorPredybaylo, Evgeniyaen
kaust.authorStenchikov, Georgiy L.en
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