Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/621506
Title:
Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions
Authors:
Iskandarani, Mohamed; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar
Abstract:
Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal amplitudes considered as uniformly distributed uncertain random variables. These perturbations impact primarily the Loop Current system and several frontal eddies located in its vicinity. A small ensemble is used to sample the space of the modal amplitudes and to construct a surrogate for the evolution of the model predictions via a nonintrusive Galerkin projection. The analysis of the surrogate yields verification measures for the surrogate's reliability and statistical information for the model output. A variance analysis indicates that the sea surface height predictability in the vicinity of the Loop Current is limited to about 20 days. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
KAUST Department:
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
Citation:
Iskandarani M, Le Hénaff M, Thacker WC, Srinivasan A, Knio OM (2016) Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121: 4819–4832. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011573.
Publisher:
Wiley-Blackwell
Journal:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Issue Date:
9-Jun-2016
DOI:
10.1002/2015JC011573
Type:
Article
ISSN:
2169-9275
Sponsors:
We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments were extremely helpful in improving the manuscript. This research was made possible in part by a grant from BP/The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative to the CARTHE and DEEP-C Consortia, and by the Office of Naval Research, Award N00014-1010498. O. M. Knio was supported in part by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, under Award Number DE-SC0008789. M. Le Henaff received partial support for this work from the NOAA Quantitative Observing System Assessment Program (QOSAP, grant NA15OAR4320064) and the base funds of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. The altimeter products were produced by SSALTO/DUACS and distributed by AVISO (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/duacs/), with support from the Centre National dEtudes Spatiales (CNES). The model outputs used in the present study are available on GRIIDC website (https://data.gulfresearchinitiative.org/).
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorIskandarani, Mohameden
dc.contributor.authorLe Hénaff, Matthieuen
dc.contributor.authorSrinivasan, Ashwanthen
dc.contributor.authorKnio, Omaren
dc.date.accessioned2016-11-03T08:30:59Z-
dc.date.available2016-11-03T08:30:59Z-
dc.date.issued2016-06-09en
dc.identifier.citationIskandarani M, Le Hénaff M, Thacker WC, Srinivasan A, Knio OM (2016) Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121: 4819–4832. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011573.en
dc.identifier.issn2169-9275en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2015JC011573en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/621506-
dc.description.abstractPolynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal amplitudes considered as uniformly distributed uncertain random variables. These perturbations impact primarily the Loop Current system and several frontal eddies located in its vicinity. A small ensemble is used to sample the space of the modal amplitudes and to construct a surrogate for the evolution of the model predictions via a nonintrusive Galerkin projection. The analysis of the surrogate yields verification measures for the surrogate's reliability and statistical information for the model output. A variance analysis indicates that the sea surface height predictability in the vicinity of the Loop Current is limited to about 20 days. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWe would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments were extremely helpful in improving the manuscript. This research was made possible in part by a grant from BP/The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative to the CARTHE and DEEP-C Consortia, and by the Office of Naval Research, Award N00014-1010498. O. M. Knio was supported in part by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, under Award Number DE-SC0008789. M. Le Henaff received partial support for this work from the NOAA Quantitative Observing System Assessment Program (QOSAP, grant NA15OAR4320064) and the base funds of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. The altimeter products were produced by SSALTO/DUACS and distributed by AVISO (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/duacs/), with support from the Centre National dEtudes Spatiales (CNES). The model outputs used in the present study are available on GRIIDC website (https://data.gulfresearchinitiative.org/).en
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwellen
dc.subjectGulf of Mexico Circulationen
dc.subjectpolynomial chaosen
dc.subjectuncertainty quantificationen
dc.titleQuantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditionsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceansen
dc.contributor.institutionRosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science; University of Miami; Miami Florida USAen
dc.contributor.institutionCIMAS; University of Miami; Miami Florida USAen
dc.contributor.institutionAOML, NOAA; Miami Florida USAen
dc.contributor.institutionTendral LLC; Miami Florida USAen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Mechanical Engineering & Materials Science; Duke University; Durham North Carolina USAen
kaust.authorKnio, Omaren
All Items in KAUST are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.