Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/621075
Title:
Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models
Authors:
El Kenawy, Ahmed M. ( 0000-0001-6639-6253 ) ; McCabe, Matthew ( 0000-0002-1279-5272 )
Abstract:
An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.
KAUST Department:
Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division
Citation:
El Kenawy AM, McCabe MF (2016) Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Theor Appl Climatol. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1874-y.
Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Issue Date:
28-Jul-2016
DOI:
10.1007/s00704-016-1874-y
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0177-798X; 1434-4483
Sponsors:
Research reported in this publication was supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. We wish to thank the various international modeling groups for providing their data through the CMIP5 initiative. We also would like to thank the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, for providing the NCEP reanalysis data.
Additional Links:
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-016-1874-y
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.en
dc.contributor.authorMcCabe, Matthewen
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-19T12:27:59Z-
dc.date.available2016-10-19T12:27:59Z-
dc.date.issued2016-07-28en
dc.identifier.citationEl Kenawy AM, McCabe MF (2016) Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Theor Appl Climatol. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1874-y.en
dc.identifier.issn0177-798Xen
dc.identifier.issn1434-4483en
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00704-016-1874-yen
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/621075-
dc.description.abstractAn assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.en
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch reported in this publication was supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. We wish to thank the various international modeling groups for providing their data through the CMIP5 initiative. We also would like to thank the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, for providing the NCEP reanalysis data.en
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen
dc.relation.urlhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-016-1874-yen
dc.rightsAccepted manuscript version of article published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. The publisher version of record is available at: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1874-yen
dc.titleFuture projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 modelsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentBiological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalTheoretical and Applied Climatologyen
dc.eprint.versionPost-printen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geography, Mansoura Universityen
kaust.authorEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.en
kaust.authorMcCabe, Matthewen
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