Hybrid Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using Scenario Earthquakes for the Istanbul Area

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/607279
Title:
Hybrid Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using Scenario Earthquakes for the Istanbul Area
Authors:
Reshi, Owais A. ( 0000-0001-9165-5683 )
Abstract:
Seismic design, analysis and retrofitting of structures demand an intensive assessment of potential ground motions in seismically active regions. Peak ground motions and frequency content of seismic excitations effectively influence the behavior of structures. In regions of sparse ground motion records, ground-motion simulations provide the synthetic seismic records, which not only provide insight into the mechanisms of earthquakes but also help in improving some aspects of earthquake engineering. Broadband ground-motion simulation methods typically utilize physics-based modeling of source and path effects at low frequencies coupled with high frequency semi-stochastic methods. I apply the hybrid simulation method by Mai et al. (2010) to model several scenario earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, an area of high seismic hazard. Simulated ground motions were generated at 75 stations using systematically calibrated model parameters. The region-specific source, path and site model parameters were calibrated by simulating a 𝑀w4.1 Marmara Sea earthquake that occurred on November 16, 2015 on the fault segment in the vicinity of Istanbul. The calibrated parameters were then used to simulate the scenario earthquakes with magnitudes 𝑀w6.0, 𝑀w6.25, 𝑀w6.5 and 𝑀w6.75 over the Marmara Sea fault. Effects of fault geometry, hypocenter location, slip distribution and rupture propagation were thoroughly studied to understand variability in ground motions. A rigorous analysis of waveforms reveal that these parameters are critical for determining the behavior of ground motions especially in the near-field. Comparison of simulated ground motion intensities with ground-motion prediction quations indicates the need of development of the region-specific ground-motion prediction equation for Istanbul area. Peak ground motion maps are presented to illustrate the shaking in the Istanbul area due to the scenario earthquakes. The southern part of Istanbul including Princes Islands show high amplitudes of shaking. The study serves as a step towards dynamic risk quantification for the Istanbul area that integrates physicsbased ground-motion simulations into an innovative dynamic exposure model to quantify risk.
Advisors:
Mai, Paul Martin ( 0000-0002-9744-4964 )
Committee Member:
Jonsson, Sigurjon ( 0000-0001-5378-7079 ) ; Jones, Burton ( 0000-0002-9599-1593 )
KAUST Department:
Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division; Earth Science and Engineering Program
Program:
Earth Sciences and Engineering
Issue Date:
13-Apr-2016
Type:
Thesis
Appears in Collections:
Theses; Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division; Earth Science and Engineering Program

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.advisorMai, Paul Martinen
dc.contributor.authorReshi, Owais A.en
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-28T09:11:40Zen
dc.date.available2016-04-28T09:11:40Zen
dc.date.issued2016-04-13en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/607279en
dc.description.abstractSeismic design, analysis and retrofitting of structures demand an intensive assessment of potential ground motions in seismically active regions. Peak ground motions and frequency content of seismic excitations effectively influence the behavior of structures. In regions of sparse ground motion records, ground-motion simulations provide the synthetic seismic records, which not only provide insight into the mechanisms of earthquakes but also help in improving some aspects of earthquake engineering. Broadband ground-motion simulation methods typically utilize physics-based modeling of source and path effects at low frequencies coupled with high frequency semi-stochastic methods. I apply the hybrid simulation method by Mai et al. (2010) to model several scenario earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, an area of high seismic hazard. Simulated ground motions were generated at 75 stations using systematically calibrated model parameters. The region-specific source, path and site model parameters were calibrated by simulating a 𝑀w4.1 Marmara Sea earthquake that occurred on November 16, 2015 on the fault segment in the vicinity of Istanbul. The calibrated parameters were then used to simulate the scenario earthquakes with magnitudes 𝑀w6.0, 𝑀w6.25, 𝑀w6.5 and 𝑀w6.75 over the Marmara Sea fault. Effects of fault geometry, hypocenter location, slip distribution and rupture propagation were thoroughly studied to understand variability in ground motions. A rigorous analysis of waveforms reveal that these parameters are critical for determining the behavior of ground motions especially in the near-field. Comparison of simulated ground motion intensities with ground-motion prediction quations indicates the need of development of the region-specific ground-motion prediction equation for Istanbul area. Peak ground motion maps are presented to illustrate the shaking in the Istanbul area due to the scenario earthquakes. The southern part of Istanbul including Princes Islands show high amplitudes of shaking. The study serves as a step towards dynamic risk quantification for the Istanbul area that integrates physicsbased ground-motion simulations into an innovative dynamic exposure model to quantify risk.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectEarthquakesen
dc.subjectHybrid Broadbanden
dc.subjectSimulationen
dc.subjectIstanbulen
dc.subjectScenario Earthquakesen
dc.titleHybrid Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using Scenario Earthquakes for the Istanbul Areaen
dc.typeThesisen
dc.contributor.departmentPhysical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Divisionen
dc.contributor.departmentEarth Science and Engineering Programen
thesis.degree.grantorKing Abdullah University of Science and Technologyen_GB
dc.contributor.committeememberJonsson, Sigurjonen
dc.contributor.committeememberJones, Burtonen
thesis.degree.disciplineEarth Sciences and Engineeringen
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen
dc.person.id132625en
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