Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/598567
Title:
Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations
Authors:
Rajakaruna, Harshana; Potapov, Alexei; Lewis, Mark
Abstract:
A thorough quantitative understanding of populations at the edge of extinction is needed to manage both invasive and extirpating populations. Immigration can govern the population dynamics when the population levels are low. It increases the probability of a population establishing (or reestablishing) before going extinct (EBE). However, the rate of immigration can be highly fluctuating. Here, we investigate how the stochasticity in immigration impacts the EBE probability for small populations in variable environments. We use a population model with an Allee effect described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and employ the Fokker-Planck diffusion approximation to quantify the EBE probability.Wefind that, the effect of the stochasticity in immigration on the EBE probability depends on both the intrinsic growth rate (r) and the mean rate of immigration (p). In general, if r is large and positive (e.g. invasive species introduced to favorable habitats), or if p is greater than the rate of population decline due to the demographic Allee effect (e.g., effective stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration decreases the EBE probability. If r is large and negative (e.g. endangered populations in unfavorable habitats), or if the rate of decline due to the demographic Allee effect is much greater than p (e.g., weak stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration increases the EBE probability. However, the mean time for EBE decreases with the increasing stochasticity in immigration with both positive and negative large r. Thus, results suggest that ecological management of populations involves a tradeoff as to whether to increase or decrease the stochasticity in immigration in order to optimize the desired outcome. Moreover, the control of invasive species spread through stochastic means, for example, by stochastic monitoring and treatment of vectors such as ship-ballast water, may be suitable strategies given the environmental and demographic uncertainties at introductions. Similarly, the recovery of declining and extirpated populations through stochastic stocking, translocation, and reintroduction, may also be suitable strategies. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Citation:
Rajakaruna H, Potapov A, Lewis M (2013) Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations. Theoretical Population Biology 85: 38–48. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2013.01.009.
Publisher:
Elsevier BV
Journal:
Theoretical Population Biology
KAUST Grant Number:
KUK-CI013-04
Issue Date:
May-2013
DOI:
10.1016/j.tpb.2013.01.009
PubMed ID:
23402773
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0040-5809
Sponsors:
The authors thank the Lewis Lab for helpful feedback on the modeling and analysis. This work was funded by the University of Alberta, Department of Biological Sciences (HR), the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (HR and AP), a Canada Research Chair (MAL) and NSERC Discovery and Accelerator Grant (MAL). This publication was based on work supported in part by Award No KUK-CI013-04 made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) (MAL). The authors also thank the reviewers of this manuscript.
Appears in Collections:
Publications Acknowledging KAUST Support

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorRajakaruna, Harshanaen
dc.contributor.authorPotapov, Alexeien
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Marken
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-25T13:32:17Zen
dc.date.available2016-02-25T13:32:17Zen
dc.date.issued2013-05en
dc.identifier.citationRajakaruna H, Potapov A, Lewis M (2013) Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations. Theoretical Population Biology 85: 38–48. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2013.01.009.en
dc.identifier.issn0040-5809en
dc.identifier.pmid23402773en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tpb.2013.01.009en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/598567en
dc.description.abstractA thorough quantitative understanding of populations at the edge of extinction is needed to manage both invasive and extirpating populations. Immigration can govern the population dynamics when the population levels are low. It increases the probability of a population establishing (or reestablishing) before going extinct (EBE). However, the rate of immigration can be highly fluctuating. Here, we investigate how the stochasticity in immigration impacts the EBE probability for small populations in variable environments. We use a population model with an Allee effect described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and employ the Fokker-Planck diffusion approximation to quantify the EBE probability.Wefind that, the effect of the stochasticity in immigration on the EBE probability depends on both the intrinsic growth rate (r) and the mean rate of immigration (p). In general, if r is large and positive (e.g. invasive species introduced to favorable habitats), or if p is greater than the rate of population decline due to the demographic Allee effect (e.g., effective stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration decreases the EBE probability. If r is large and negative (e.g. endangered populations in unfavorable habitats), or if the rate of decline due to the demographic Allee effect is much greater than p (e.g., weak stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration increases the EBE probability. However, the mean time for EBE decreases with the increasing stochasticity in immigration with both positive and negative large r. Thus, results suggest that ecological management of populations involves a tradeoff as to whether to increase or decrease the stochasticity in immigration in order to optimize the desired outcome. Moreover, the control of invasive species spread through stochastic means, for example, by stochastic monitoring and treatment of vectors such as ship-ballast water, may be suitable strategies given the environmental and demographic uncertainties at introductions. Similarly, the recovery of declining and extirpated populations through stochastic stocking, translocation, and reintroduction, may also be suitable strategies. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors thank the Lewis Lab for helpful feedback on the modeling and analysis. This work was funded by the University of Alberta, Department of Biological Sciences (HR), the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (HR and AP), a Canada Research Chair (MAL) and NSERC Discovery and Accelerator Grant (MAL). This publication was based on work supported in part by Award No KUK-CI013-04 made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) (MAL). The authors also thank the reviewers of this manuscript.en
dc.publisherElsevier BVen
dc.subjectExtinctionen
dc.subjectInvasiveen
dc.subjectPropaguleen
dc.subjectRelocationen
dc.subjectStockingen
dc.subjectTranslocationen
dc.titleImpact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populationsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.journalTheoretical Population Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton, Canadaen
kaust.grant.numberKUK-CI013-04en
All Items in KAUST are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.