A stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practices

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/597413
Title:
A stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practices
Authors:
Wang, Xueying; Gautam, Raju; Pinedo, Pablo J.; Allen, Linda J. S.; Ivanek, Renata
Abstract:
Many infectious agents transmitting through a contaminated environment are able to persist in the environment depending on the temperature and sanitation determined rates of their replication and clearance, respectively. There is a need to elucidate the effect of these factors on the infection transmission dynamics in terms of infection outbreaks and extinction while accounting for the random nature of the process. Also, it is important to distinguish between the true and apparent extinction, where the former means pathogen extinction in both the host and the environment while the latter means extinction only in the host population. This study proposes a stochastic-differential equation model as an approximation to a Markov jump process model, using Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as a model system. In the model, the host population infection dynamics are described using the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible framework, and the E. coli O157:H7 population in the environment is represented by an additional variable. The backward Kolmogorov equations that determine the probability distribution and the expectation of the first passage time are provided in a general setting. The outbreak and apparent extinction of infection are investigated by numerically solving the Kolmogorov equations for the probability density function of the associated process and the expectation of the associated stopping time. The results provide insight into E. coli O157:H7 transmission and apparent extinction, and suggest ways for controlling the spread of infection in a cattle herd. Specifically, this study highlights the importance of ambient temperature and sanitation, especially during summer. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Citation:
Wang X, Gautam R, Pinedo PJ, Allen LJS, Ivanek R (2013) A stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practices. Journal of Mathematical Biology 69: 501–532. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-013-0707-1.
Publisher:
Springer Nature
Journal:
Journal of Mathematical Biology
KAUST Grant Number:
KUS-C1-016-04
Issue Date:
18-Jul-2013
DOI:
10.1007/s00285-013-0707-1
PubMed ID:
23864122
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0303-6812; 1432-1416
Sponsors:
We thank three anonymous referees and the editor for their suggestions that improved this paper. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grant NSF-EF-0913367 to RI funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. This publication is based in part on work supported by Award No. KUS-C1-016-04, made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST).
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Publications Acknowledging KAUST Support

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorWang, Xueyingen
dc.contributor.authorGautam, Rajuen
dc.contributor.authorPinedo, Pablo J.en
dc.contributor.authorAllen, Linda J. S.en
dc.contributor.authorIvanek, Renataen
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-25T12:32:44Zen
dc.date.available2016-02-25T12:32:44Zen
dc.date.issued2013-07-18en
dc.identifier.citationWang X, Gautam R, Pinedo PJ, Allen LJS, Ivanek R (2013) A stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practices. Journal of Mathematical Biology 69: 501–532. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-013-0707-1.en
dc.identifier.issn0303-6812en
dc.identifier.issn1432-1416en
dc.identifier.pmid23864122en
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00285-013-0707-1en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/597413en
dc.description.abstractMany infectious agents transmitting through a contaminated environment are able to persist in the environment depending on the temperature and sanitation determined rates of their replication and clearance, respectively. There is a need to elucidate the effect of these factors on the infection transmission dynamics in terms of infection outbreaks and extinction while accounting for the random nature of the process. Also, it is important to distinguish between the true and apparent extinction, where the former means pathogen extinction in both the host and the environment while the latter means extinction only in the host population. This study proposes a stochastic-differential equation model as an approximation to a Markov jump process model, using Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as a model system. In the model, the host population infection dynamics are described using the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible framework, and the E. coli O157:H7 population in the environment is represented by an additional variable. The backward Kolmogorov equations that determine the probability distribution and the expectation of the first passage time are provided in a general setting. The outbreak and apparent extinction of infection are investigated by numerically solving the Kolmogorov equations for the probability density function of the associated process and the expectation of the associated stopping time. The results provide insight into E. coli O157:H7 transmission and apparent extinction, and suggest ways for controlling the spread of infection in a cattle herd. Specifically, this study highlights the importance of ambient temperature and sanitation, especially during summer. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank three anonymous referees and the editor for their suggestions that improved this paper. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grant NSF-EF-0913367 to RI funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. This publication is based in part on work supported by Award No. KUS-C1-016-04, made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST).en
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen
dc.subjectEscherichia coli O157:H7en
dc.subjectExtinctionen
dc.subjectKolmogorov equationsen
dc.subjectoutbreaken
dc.titleA stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practicesen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Mathematical Biologyen
dc.contributor.institutionTexas A and M University, College Station, United Statesen
dc.contributor.institutionTexas Tech University at Lubbock, Lubbock, United Statesen
kaust.grant.numberKUS-C1-016-04en

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