A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: Climatology, anomalies and trends

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/565942
Title:
A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: Climatology, anomalies and trends
Authors:
El Kenawy, Ahmed M. ( 0000-0001-6639-6253 ) ; McCabe, Matthew ( 0000-0002-1279-5272 )
Abstract:
Many arid and semi-arid regions have sparse precipitation observing networks, which limits the capacity for detailed hydrological modelling, water resources management and flood forecasting efforts. The objective of this work is to evaluate the utility of relatively high-spatial resolution rainfall products to reproduce observed multi-decadal rainfall characteristics such as climatologies, anomalies and trends over Saudi Arabia. Our study compares the statistical characteristics of rainfall from 53 observatories over the reference period 1965-2005, with rainfall data from six widely used gauge-based products, including APHRODITE, GPCC, PRINCETON, UDEL, CRU and PREC/L. In addition, the performance of three global climate models (GCMs), including CCSM4, EC-EARTH and MRI-I-CGCM3, integrated as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), was also evaluated. Results indicate that the gauge-based products were generally skillful in reproducing rainfall characteristics in Saudi Arabia. In most cases, the gauge-based products were also able to capture the annual cycle, anomalies and climatologies of observed data, although significant inter-product variability was observed, depending on the assessment metric being used. In comparison, the GCM-based products generally exhibited poor performance, with larger biases and very weak correlations, particularly during the summertime. Importantly, all products generally failed to reproduce the observed long-term seasonal and annual trends in the region, particularly during the dry seasons (summer and autumn). Overall, this work suggests that selected gauge-based products with daily (APHRODITE and PRINCETON) and monthly (GPCC and CRU) resolutions show superior performance relative to other products, implying that they may be the most appropriate data source from which multi-decadal variations of rainfall can be investigated at the regional scale over Saudi Arabia. Discriminating these skillful products is important not only for reducing uncertainty in climate, hydrological and environmental assessments but also for advancing model developments in the region.
KAUST Department:
Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division; Water Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)
Citation:
El Kenawy, A. M. and McCabe, M. F. (2016), A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends. Int. J. Climatol., 36: 656–674. doi:10.1002/joc.4374
Publisher:
Wiley
Journal:
International Journal of Climatology
Issue Date:
15-May-2015
DOI:
10.1002/joc.4374
Type:
Article
ISSN:
08998418
Sponsors:
Research reported in this publication was supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. The authors are grateful to the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Water and Electricity (MOWE) for providing the daily rainfall data. We also acknowledge the many different universities and government-based research groups for providing their data sets for analysis.
Additional Links:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4374/abstract
Appears in Collections:
Articles

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.en
dc.contributor.authorMcCabe, Matthewen
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-17T06:41:29Z-
dc.date.available2015-08-12T08:55:38Zen
dc.date.available2016-10-17T06:41:29Z-
dc.date.issued2015-05-15-
dc.identifier.citationEl Kenawy, A. M. and McCabe, M. F. (2016), A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends. Int. J. Climatol., 36: 656–674. doi:10.1002/joc.4374en
dc.identifier.issn08998418-
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.4374-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/565942-
dc.description.abstractMany arid and semi-arid regions have sparse precipitation observing networks, which limits the capacity for detailed hydrological modelling, water resources management and flood forecasting efforts. The objective of this work is to evaluate the utility of relatively high-spatial resolution rainfall products to reproduce observed multi-decadal rainfall characteristics such as climatologies, anomalies and trends over Saudi Arabia. Our study compares the statistical characteristics of rainfall from 53 observatories over the reference period 1965-2005, with rainfall data from six widely used gauge-based products, including APHRODITE, GPCC, PRINCETON, UDEL, CRU and PREC/L. In addition, the performance of three global climate models (GCMs), including CCSM4, EC-EARTH and MRI-I-CGCM3, integrated as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), was also evaluated. Results indicate that the gauge-based products were generally skillful in reproducing rainfall characteristics in Saudi Arabia. In most cases, the gauge-based products were also able to capture the annual cycle, anomalies and climatologies of observed data, although significant inter-product variability was observed, depending on the assessment metric being used. In comparison, the GCM-based products generally exhibited poor performance, with larger biases and very weak correlations, particularly during the summertime. Importantly, all products generally failed to reproduce the observed long-term seasonal and annual trends in the region, particularly during the dry seasons (summer and autumn). Overall, this work suggests that selected gauge-based products with daily (APHRODITE and PRINCETON) and monthly (GPCC and CRU) resolutions show superior performance relative to other products, implying that they may be the most appropriate data source from which multi-decadal variations of rainfall can be investigated at the regional scale over Saudi Arabia. Discriminating these skillful products is important not only for reducing uncertainty in climate, hydrological and environmental assessments but also for advancing model developments in the region.en
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch reported in this publication was supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. The authors are grateful to the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Water and Electricity (MOWE) for providing the daily rainfall data. We also acknowledge the many different universities and government-based research groups for providing their data sets for analysis.en
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.relation.urlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4374/abstracten
dc.rightsThis is the accepted manuscript version of an article published in the International Journal of Climatology. The final published version is available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4374/abstracten
dc.subjectCross-tabulationen
dc.subjectGauge-based productsen
dc.subjectGlobal climate modelsen
dc.subjectRainfallen
dc.subjectSaudi Arabiaen
dc.subjectTrendsen
dc.titleA multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: Climatology, anomalies and trendsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentBiological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Divisionen
dc.contributor.departmentWater Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)en
dc.identifier.journalInternational Journal of Climatologyen
dc.eprint.versionPost-printen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geography Mansoura University Egypten
kaust.authorEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.en
kaust.authorMcCabe, Matthewen

Version History

VersionItem Editor Date Summary
2 10754/565942grenzdm2016-10-17 07:33:41.0Manuscript version received from Prof. Matthew McCabe.
1 10754/565942.1grenzdm2015-08-12 09:55:38.0null
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