Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/565839
Title:
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change
Authors:
Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschön, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañaga, A; Irigoien, Xabier ( 0000-0002-5411-6741 )
Abstract:
Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).
KAUST Department:
Red Sea Research Center (RSRC)
Citation:
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change 2015, 531:121 Marine Ecology Progress Series
Publisher:
Inter-Research Science Center
Journal:
Marine Ecology Progress Series
Issue Date:
2-Jul-2015
DOI:
10.3354/meps11299
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0171-8630; 1616-1599
Additional Links:
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v531/p121-142/
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Red Sea Research Center (RSRC)

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorVillarino, Een
dc.contributor.authorChust, Gen
dc.contributor.authorLicandro, Pen
dc.contributor.authorButenschön, Men
dc.contributor.authorIbaibarriaga, Len
dc.contributor.authorLarrañaga, Aen
dc.contributor.authorIrigoien, Xabieren
dc.date.accessioned2015-08-11T11:36:45Zen
dc.date.available2015-08-11T11:36:45Zen
dc.date.issued2015-07-02en
dc.identifier.citationModelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change 2015, 531:121 Marine Ecology Progress Seriesen
dc.identifier.issn0171-8630en
dc.identifier.issn1616-1599en
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/meps11299en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/565839en
dc.description.abstractAdvances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherInter-Research Science Centeren
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v531/p121-142/en
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Marine Ecology Progress Seriesen
dc.subjectZooplanktonen
dc.subjectHabitat suitabilityen
dc.subjectGAMen
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectNorth Atlanticen
dc.subjectBiogeographyen
dc.titleModelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate changeen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentRed Sea Research Center (RSRC)en
dc.identifier.journalMarine Ecology Progress Seriesen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionAZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Txatxarramendi ugartea z/g, 48395 Sukarrieta (Bizkaia), Spainen
dc.contributor.institutionSir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionPlymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionLaboratory of Stream Ecology, Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of the Basque Country, PO Box 644, 48080 Bilbao, Spainen
dc.contributor.affiliationKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)en
kaust.authorIrigoien, Xabieren
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