Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/564077
Title:
Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)
Authors:
El Kenawy, Ahmed M. ( 0000-0001-6639-6253 ) ; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; McCabe, Matthew ( 0000-0002-1279-5272 ) ; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
Abstract:
We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi-disciplinary investigations.
KAUST Department:
Water Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC); Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Division; Environmental Science and Engineering Program; Earth System Observation and Modelling
Citation:
A. El Kenawy, J.I. López-Moreno, M.F. McCabe, N.A. Brunsell, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia), Atmospheric Research, Volume 155, 15 March 2015, Pages 141-157, ISSN 0169-8095, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.007.
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Atmospheric Research
Issue Date:
18-Dec-2014
DOI:
10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.007
Type:
Article
ISSN:
01698095
Sponsors:
We would like to thank the Spanish Meteorological State Agency (AEMET) for providing the database used in this study. Research reported in this publication has been supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. This work has also been supported by the research project CGL2011-27574-CO2-02 financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER and “Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (LIFE MEDACC)” financed by the LIFE program of the European Commission. Finally, the ENSEMBLES data used in this work were funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES whose support is gratefully acknowledged.
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809514004438
Appears in Collections:
Articles

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.en
dc.contributor.authorLópez-Moreno, Juan Ignacioen
dc.contributor.authorMcCabe, Matthewen
dc.contributor.authorBrunsell, Nathaniel A.en
dc.contributor.authorVicente-Serrano, Sergio M.en
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-17T07:17:23Z-
dc.date.available2015-08-03T12:31:06Zen
dc.date.available2016-10-17T07:17:23Z-
dc.date.issued2014-12-18-
dc.identifier.citationA. El Kenawy, J.I. López-Moreno, M.F. McCabe, N.A. Brunsell, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia), Atmospheric Research, Volume 155, 15 March 2015, Pages 141-157, ISSN 0169-8095, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.007.en
dc.identifier.issn01698095-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.007-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/564077-
dc.description.abstractWe employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi-disciplinary investigations.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWe would like to thank the Spanish Meteorological State Agency (AEMET) for providing the database used in this study. Research reported in this publication has been supported by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia. This work has also been supported by the research project CGL2011-27574-CO2-02 financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER and “Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (LIFE MEDACC)” financed by the LIFE program of the European Commission. Finally, the ENSEMBLES data used in this work were funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES whose support is gratefully acknowledged.en
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809514004438en
dc.rightsAccepted manuscript version of article published in Atmospheric Research. Available in final form at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.007en
dc.subjectClimate modelsen
dc.subjectENSEMBLESen
dc.subjectMaximum temperatureen
dc.subjectTemperature percentilesen
dc.subjectThe ebro valleyen
dc.subjectTrendsen
dc.titleDaily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)en
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentWater Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)en
dc.contributor.departmentBiological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering (BESE) Divisionen
dc.contributor.departmentEnvironmental Science and Engineering Programen
dc.contributor.departmentEarth System Observation and Modellingen
dc.identifier.journalAtmospheric Researchen
dc.eprint.versionPost-printen
dc.contributor.institutionInstituto Pirenaico de Ecología-CSIC, Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 13034Zaragoza, Spainen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United Statesen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geography, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypten
kaust.authorEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.en
kaust.authorMcCabe, Matthewen

Version History

VersionItem Editor Date Summary
2 10754/564077grenzdm2016-10-17 07:57:42.0Author accepted version received for deposit from Matthew McCabe.
1 10754/564077.1grenzdm2015-08-03 13:31:06.0null
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