Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/554384
Title:
Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters
Authors:
Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, Paul Martin ( 0000-0002-9744-4964 )
Abstract:
Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.
KAUST Department:
Earth Science and Engineering Program
Citation:
Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters 2013, 196 (3):1770 Geophysical Journal International
Journal:
Geophysical Journal International
Issue Date:
24-Dec-2013
DOI:
10.1093/gji/ggt479
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0956-540X; 1365-246X
Additional Links:
http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/doi/10.1093/gji/ggt479
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Earth Science and Engineering Program

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorSong, S. G.en
dc.contributor.authorDalguer, L. A.en
dc.contributor.authorMai, Paul Martinen
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-21T07:04:00Zen
dc.date.available2015-05-21T07:04:00Zen
dc.date.issued2013-12-24en
dc.identifier.citationPseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters 2013, 196 (3):1770 Geophysical Journal Internationalen
dc.identifier.issn0956-540Xen
dc.identifier.issn1365-246Xen
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/gji/ggt479en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/554384en
dc.description.abstractGround motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.en
dc.relation.urlhttp://gji.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/doi/10.1093/gji/ggt479en
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Geophysical Journal International © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.en
dc.subjectEarthquake dynamicsen
dc.subjectEarthquake ground motionsen
dc.subjectComputational seismologyen
dc.subjectStatistical seismologyen
dc.titlePseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parametersen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentEarth Science and Engineering Programen
dc.identifier.journalGeophysical Journal Internationalen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionSwiss Seismological Service (SED), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerlanden
kaust.authorMai, Paul Martinen
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