Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552774
Title:
Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting
Authors:
Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim ( 0000-0002-3751-4393 ) ; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.
Abstract:
Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.
KAUST Department:
Water Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC); Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division
Citation:
Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting 2012, 140 (7):2215 Monthly Weather Review
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Journal:
Monthly Weather Review
Issue Date:
Jul-2012
DOI:
10.1175/MWR-D-11-00118.1
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0027-0644; 1520-0493
Additional Links:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00118.1
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division; Water Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorButler, T.en
dc.contributor.authorAltaf, Muhammaden
dc.contributor.authorDawson, C.en
dc.contributor.authorHoteit, Ibrahimen
dc.contributor.authorLuo, X.en
dc.contributor.authorMayo, T.en
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-14T06:59:54Zen
dc.date.available2015-05-14T06:59:54Zen
dc.date.issued2012-07en
dc.identifier.citationData Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting 2012, 140 (7):2215 Monthly Weather Reviewen
dc.identifier.issn0027-0644en
dc.identifier.issn1520-0493en
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/MWR-D-11-00118.1en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/552774en
dc.description.abstractAccurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.en
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen
dc.relation.urlhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00118.1en
dc.rights© Copyright 2012 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.en
dc.subjectHurricanes/typhoonsen
dc.subjectStorm surgesen
dc.subjectFiltering techniquesen
dc.subjectKalman filtersen
dc.subjectData assimilationen
dc.titleData Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecastingen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentWater Desalination and Reuse Research Center (WDRC)en
dc.contributor.departmentPhysical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalMonthly Weather Reviewen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texasen
kaust.authorAltaf, Muhammaden
kaust.authorHoteit, Ibrahimen
kaust.authorLuo, Xiaodongen
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