Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552383
Title:
Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models
Authors:
Goddard, Scott D.; Genton, Marc G. ( 0000-0001-6467-2998 ) ; Hering, Amanda S.; Sain, Stephan R.
Abstract:
Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.
KAUST Department:
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division
Citation:
Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models 2015, 26 (3):192 Environmetrics
Publisher:
Wiley-Blackwell
Journal:
Environmetrics
Issue Date:
May-2015
DOI:
10.1002/env.2329
Type:
Article
ISSN:
11804009
Additional Links:
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/env.2329
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorGoddard, Scott D.en
dc.contributor.authorGenton, Marc G.en
dc.contributor.authorHering, Amanda S.en
dc.contributor.authorSain, Stephan R.en
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-06T13:28:14Zen
dc.date.available2015-05-06T13:28:14Zen
dc.date.issued2015-05en
dc.identifier.citationEvaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models 2015, 26 (3):192 Environmetricsen
dc.identifier.issn11804009en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/env.2329en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/552383en
dc.description.abstractElectrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.en
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwellen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/env.2329en
dc.rightsThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article:Goddard, S. D., Genton, M. G., Hering, A. S. and Sain, S. R. (2015), Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models. Environmetrics, 26: 192–201, which has been published in final form at http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/env.2329. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.en
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectdiurnal power cyclesen
dc.subjectregional climate modelsen
dc.subjectwind energyen
dc.titleEvaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate modelsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentComputer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalEnvironmetricsen
dc.eprint.versionPost-printen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Statistics; Texas A&M University; College Station TX 77843 U.S.A.en
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Applied Mathematics and Statistics; Colorado School of Mines; Golden CO 80401 U.S.A.en
dc.contributor.institutionThe Climate Corporation; San Francisco CA 94103 U.S.A.en
kaust.authorGenton, Marc G.en
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