Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552198
Title:
Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe
Authors:
Migliavacca, Mirco; Dosio, Alessandro; Camia, Andrea; Hobourg, Rasmus; Houston-Durrant, Tracy; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Khabarov, Nikolay; Krasovskii, Andrey A.; Marcolla, Barbara; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Ward, Daniel S.; Cescatti, Alessandro
Abstract:
In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.
KAUST Department:
Environmental Science and Engineering Program
Citation:
Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe 2013, 118 (4):1732 Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Publisher:
Wiley-Blackwell
Journal:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Issue Date:
Dec-2013
DOI:
10.1002/2013JG002444
Type:
Article
ISSN:
21698953
Additional Links:
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JG002444
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Environmental Science and Engineering Program

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorMigliavacca, Mircoen
dc.contributor.authorDosio, Alessandroen
dc.contributor.authorCamia, Andreaen
dc.contributor.authorHobourg, Rasmusen
dc.contributor.authorHouston-Durrant, Tracyen
dc.contributor.authorKaiser, Johannes W.en
dc.contributor.authorKhabarov, Nikolayen
dc.contributor.authorKrasovskii, Andrey A.en
dc.contributor.authorMarcolla, Barbaraen
dc.contributor.authorSan Miguel-Ayanz, Jesusen
dc.contributor.authorWard, Daniel S.en
dc.contributor.authorCescatti, Alessandroen
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-04T16:39:50Zen
dc.date.available2015-05-04T16:39:50Zen
dc.date.issued2013-12en
dc.identifier.citationModeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe 2013, 118 (4):1732 Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciencesen
dc.identifier.issn21698953en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2013JG002444en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/552198en
dc.description.abstractIn this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.en
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwellen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JG002444en
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciencesen
dc.titleModeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europeen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentEnvironmental Science and Engineering Programen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciencesen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre; European Commission; Ispra Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre; European Commission; Ispra Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre; European Commission; Ispra Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre; European Commission; Ispra Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geography, King's College London; London UKen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Applied System Analysis; Laxenburg Austriaen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Applied System Analysis; Laxenburg Austriaen
dc.contributor.institutionSustainable Agro-Ecosystems and Bioresources Department; Fondazione Edmund Mach; S. Michele all'Adige Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre; European Commission; Ispra Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Science; Cornell University; Ithaca New York USAen
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre; European Commission; Ispra Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionBiogeochemical Integration Department, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germanyen
dc.contributor.institutionRemote Sensing of Environmental Dynamics Lab, DISAT, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italyen
dc.contributor.institutionEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionMax Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germanyen
kaust.authorHobourg, Rasmusen
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