Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/552130
Title:
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions
Authors:
Driscoll, Simon; Bozzo, Alessio; Gray, Lesley J.; Robock, Alan; Stenchikov, Georgiy L. ( 0000-0001-9033-4925 )
Abstract:
The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.
KAUST Department:
Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division
Citation:
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions 2012, 117 (D17):n/a Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher:
Wiley-Blackwell
Journal:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Issue Date:
16-Sep-2012
DOI:
10.1029/2012JD017607
Type:
Article
ISSN:
01480227
Additional Links:
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD017607
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorDriscoll, Simonen
dc.contributor.authorBozzo, Alessioen
dc.contributor.authorGray, Lesley J.en
dc.contributor.authorRobock, Alanen
dc.contributor.authorStenchikov, Georgiy L.en
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-03T14:11:53Zen
dc.date.available2015-05-03T14:11:53Zen
dc.date.issued2012-09-16en
dc.identifier.citationCoupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions 2012, 117 (D17):n/a Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheresen
dc.identifier.issn01480227en
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2012JD017607en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/552130en
dc.description.abstractThe ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.en
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwellen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD017607en
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheresen
dc.subjectCMIP5en
dc.subjectGCMsen
dc.subjectclimate dynamicsen
dc.subjectstratospheric dynamicsen
dc.subjectvolcanic eruptionsen
dc.titleCoupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptionsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentPhysical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheresen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionAtmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionNow at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UKen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USAen
kaust.authorStenchikov, Georgiy L.en
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