Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/347010
Title:
Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions
Authors:
Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L. ( 0000-0001-9033-4925 ) ; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.
Abstract:
Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.
KAUST Department:
Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division
Citation:
Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions 2014, 27 (20):7781 Journal of Climate
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Journal:
Journal of Climate
Issue Date:
Oct-2014
DOI:
10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00214.1
Type:
Article
ISSN:
0894-8755; 1520-0442
Additional Links:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00214.1
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Physical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Division

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorMerlis, Timothy M.en
dc.contributor.authorHeld, Isaac M.en
dc.contributor.authorStenchikov, Georgiy L.en
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Fanrongen
dc.contributor.authorHorowitz, Larry W.en
dc.date.accessioned2015-03-23T11:44:56Zen
dc.date.available2015-03-23T11:44:56Zen
dc.date.issued2014-10en
dc.identifier.citationConstraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions 2014, 27 (20):7781 Journal of Climateen
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755en
dc.identifier.issn1520-0442en
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00214.1en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/347010en
dc.description.abstractCoupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.en
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen
dc.relation.urlhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00214.1en
dc.rights© 2015 American Meteorological Society Privacy Policy and Disclaimer Headquarters: 45 Beacon Street Boston, MA 02108-3693 DC Office: 1120 G Street, NW, Suite 800 Washington DC, 20005-3826 amsinfo@ametsoc.org Phone: 617-227-2425 Fax: 617-742-8718 Allen Press, Inc. assists in the online publication of AMS journalsen
dc.titleConstraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptionsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentPhysical Sciences and Engineering (PSE) Divisionen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Climateen
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionMcGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canadaen
dc.contributor.institutionNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jerseyen
dc.contributor.affiliationKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)en
kaust.authorStenchikov, Georgiy L.en
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