Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysis

Handle URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10754/325387
Title:
Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysis
Authors:
Riegl, Bernhard; Berumen, Michael L. ( 0000-0003-2463-2742 ) ; Bruckner, Andrew
Abstract:
Coral reefs distant from human population were sampled in the Red Sea and one-third showed degradation by predator outbreaks (crown-of-thorns-starfish=COTS observed in all regions in all years) or bleaching (1998, 2010). Models were built to assess future trajectories. They assumed variable coral types (slow/fast growing), disturbance frequencies (5,10,20years), mortality (equal or not), and connectivity (un/connected to un/disturbed community). Known disturbances were used to parameterize models. Present and future disturbances were estimated from remote-sensing chlorophyll and temperature data. Simulations and sensitivity analysis suggest community resilience at >20-year disturbance frequency, but degradation at higher frequency. Trajectories move from fast-grower to slow-grower dominance at intermediate disturbance frequency, then again to fast-grower dominance. A similar succession was observed in the field: Acropora to Porites to Stylophora/Pocillopora dominance on shallow reefs, and a transition from large poritids to small faviids on deep reefs. Synthesis and application: Even distant reefs are impacted by global changes. COTS impacts and bleaching were key driver of coral degradation, coral population decline could be reduced if these outbreaks and bleaching susceptibility were managed by maintaining water quality and by other interventions. Just leaving reefs alone, seems no longer a satisfactory option. 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution.
KAUST Department:
Red Sea Research Center (RSRC)
Citation:
Riegl B, Berumen M, Bruckner A (2013) Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: a sensitivity analysis. Ecology and Evolution 3: 1050-1064. doi:10.1002/ece3.519.
Publisher:
Wiley-Blackwell
Journal:
Ecology and Evolution
Issue Date:
7-Mar-2013
DOI:
10.1002/ece3.519
PubMed ID:
23610643
PubMed Central ID:
PMC3631413
Type:
Article
ISSN:
20457758
Appears in Collections:
Articles; Red Sea Research Center (RSRC)

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorRiegl, Bernharden
dc.contributor.authorBerumen, Michael L.en
dc.contributor.authorBruckner, Andrewen
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-27T09:50:16Z-
dc.date.available2014-08-27T09:50:16Z-
dc.date.issued2013-03-07en
dc.identifier.citationRiegl B, Berumen M, Bruckner A (2013) Coral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: a sensitivity analysis. Ecology and Evolution 3: 1050-1064. doi:10.1002/ece3.519.en
dc.identifier.issn20457758en
dc.identifier.pmid23610643en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ece3.519en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10754/325387en
dc.description.abstractCoral reefs distant from human population were sampled in the Red Sea and one-third showed degradation by predator outbreaks (crown-of-thorns-starfish=COTS observed in all regions in all years) or bleaching (1998, 2010). Models were built to assess future trajectories. They assumed variable coral types (slow/fast growing), disturbance frequencies (5,10,20years), mortality (equal or not), and connectivity (un/connected to un/disturbed community). Known disturbances were used to parameterize models. Present and future disturbances were estimated from remote-sensing chlorophyll and temperature data. Simulations and sensitivity analysis suggest community resilience at >20-year disturbance frequency, but degradation at higher frequency. Trajectories move from fast-grower to slow-grower dominance at intermediate disturbance frequency, then again to fast-grower dominance. A similar succession was observed in the field: Acropora to Porites to Stylophora/Pocillopora dominance on shallow reefs, and a transition from large poritids to small faviids on deep reefs. Synthesis and application: Even distant reefs are impacted by global changes. COTS impacts and bleaching were key driver of coral degradation, coral population decline could be reduced if these outbreaks and bleaching susceptibility were managed by maintaining water quality and by other interventions. Just leaving reefs alone, seems no longer a satisfactory option. 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwellen
dc.rights© 2013 Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.en
dc.rightsRe-use of this article is permitted in accordance with the Creative Commons Deed, Attribution 2.5, which does not permit commercial exploitation.en
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Ecology and Evolutionen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/en
dc.subjectCoral population dynamicsen
dc.subjectCoral reefen
dc.subjectGlobal changeen
dc.subjectImpactsen
dc.subjectManagementen
dc.subjectPredator outbreaken
dc.subjectSensitivityen
dc.titleCoral population trajectories, increased disturbance and management intervention: A sensitivity analysisen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentRed Sea Research Center (RSRC)en
dc.identifier.journalEcology and Evolutionen
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC3631413en
dc.eprint.versionPublisher's Version/PDFen
dc.contributor.institutionNational Coral Reef Institute, Nova Southeastern University, Dania, FL, United Statesen
dc.contributor.institutionKhaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation, Andover, MD, United Statesen
dc.contributor.affiliationKing Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)en
kaust.authorBerumen, Michael L.en

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